Total Shock

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mashburn posted this 10 December 2020

Hello to all of you re-loaders  (Cast and jacketed),

I drove about 55 miles today to the biggest firearms and reloading components store in this part of the country. I had gone there about  2 months ago to replenish a few items that I was running short on and purchased them. He told me that day that he had one of the biggest orders to be delivered any day that he had ever purchased. i discovered that I didn't have as much Re7 as I thought I  did. A friend of mine was in the store about two weeks ago and told me they still had plenty. I drug around and didn't go until today and was I surprised I have more firearms in my house than he had on the racks for sale and more ammunition.

Needless to say, I didn't get any RE7,the shelves were about bare. There was 4 lbs. of IMR 3031 and it is now mine. I talked to the owner and he told me that the future looked awful bleak. His suppliers didn't have any products and didn't know when or if they would have any in the near future

As for as my situation, I am in good shape but I feel for you shooters who aren't as prepared as I was. I have somewhere in the neighborhood of 30,000 primers and over 100 pounds of powder, so I am not going to be in a bind but I know some of you are and i feel for you. About 12 years ago I began preparing for such a situation and am I glad I did.. I'm sure that a lot of you have already found this in your area. When my part of the country gets in this condition, I know that those of you in other states are in a lot tougher situation.

Hang tough, we gotta get through it,

Mashburn

David a. Cogburn

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Rum River posted this 10 December 2020

Was at one of my local gun store haunts a couple days ago and saw he had some magnum rifle powder for an "ok" price. It wasn't one of my usual powders so didn't think much of it. Next day I checked my inventory and decided to follow up on what I could use that powder in. One thing lead to another and I hustled up there yesterday and bought what he had.

What I had found in my research is that powder availability and pricing has gone nuts. Online auctions have bidders in a frenzy, as many stores nation wide are out of powders with no idea when they'll get more. There are instances where buyers bid things up to $100 a pound.

"Well hell boys. I'd damn sight rather be hung by my friends than by a bunch'a damn strangers."

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Duane Mellenbruch posted this 10 December 2020

Before long we will be hearing of shooters pulling bullets and removing primers to use the powder or primers in other calibers because they loaded massive amounts of a preferred caliber and did not even out their on hand supply of ammo.  These are going to be difficult times for new gun owners, new reloaders, and folks that just could not spare the funds to lay back some supplies for tough times ahead.  Stay safe, and stay well.

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John Alexander posted this 10 December 2020

Does anyone know if these shortages are because of some disruption to the supply chain such as massive military orders sucking up supplies? Or it just the result of the regular paranoia on steroids and selfish hoarding.

In the last big panic the NRA  investigated and posted in the AR that the manufacturers were going full tilt and it was a Pogo problem "We have met the enemy and it is us."

 Please don't say that George Soros has bought up all the powder companies and is dumping it in the ocean. We have heard all those kinds of explanations before and makes us look demented.

John

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Rum River posted this 10 December 2020

My opinion (which is worth what people pay me for it) is the paranoia/Pogo scenario.

Looking through the various auctions for a particular powder it was common to see the same vendor selling the identical item one at a time in multiple auctions. All of the ending bids were higher than the going retail rate, but some of them varied greatly from one auction to another. Comparing the various bidding histories it seemed plausible the vendor could have acquaintances repeatedly bumping the bidding.

All of this is a guess on my part.

"Well hell boys. I'd damn sight rather be hung by my friends than by a bunch'a damn strangers."

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RicinYakima posted this 10 December 2020

 Or it just the result of the regular paranoia on steroids and selfish hoarding.

In the last big panic the NRA  investigated and posted in the AM that the manufacturers were going full tilt and it was a Pogo problem "We have met the enemy and it is us." 

Please don't say that George Soros has bought up all the powder companies and is dumping it in the ocean. We have heard all those kinds of explanations before and makes us look demented.

John

Nope it is just capitalism. Creating a demand on fear and uncertainty and raising the price. Same as the last primer shortage; once military orders were filled, primers were held in the distribution chain to raise retail prices. Same thing here, you can not protect yourself from hoarders unless you have your supply when lots are available. FWIW Ric

 

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Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 10 December 2020

one clue is to look at the supply of Lee molds .... Lee is totally out ... Midway is mostly out ...  

i doubt george soros bought up all the Lee molds.   rcbs molds maybe .. but not Lee molds.

ken,                           " ... 2021 ... are we there yet ?   "

 

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ray h posted this 10 December 2020

If Remington is not making anything, that alone would impact the supply. I would guess they are one of the bigger producers of the 4 manufacturers in the US.

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John Alexander posted this 10 December 2020

 

Ric sez: "Nope it is just capitalism. Creating a demand on fear and uncertainty and raising the price."

============

But capitalism is supposed to protect the consumer from this sort of monopoly action by other suppliers coming into the market to pick up a nice profit and drive the price back down at the same time.  It seems to me that primers and powder may be a global market.  But if you visit Powder Valley or Bruno's you will see that all their foreign powders, many dozens of them, are also sold out.

Ken is right, Lee is not only out of molds but most dies and other stuff as well.  Maybe Covid, now that we are belatedly admitting it is real, is restricting domestic production like Lee.

I wish one of our worthless gun magazines would pay a reporter to dig into it and let us know what is really happening. If you didn't know better, you might think our NRA would feel responsible to get us the news. 

John

 

 

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MarkinEllensburg posted this 11 December 2020

Part of the problem has to do with restrictions in international shipping. They have tightened. Less total hazmat allowed on dock, less allowed on each ship, shorter dock storage days per container. Add to that the pooling of different container lines, or interlining. The economics of economies of scale means container ports have also had consolidations. The Covid has had large and far reaching impact into the international trade business.

Primers? I don't know as I think those are mostly of domestic manufacture. My local ammo and reloading supply store says the prediction is limited supply until at least late summer 2021. 30 million new gun owners is part of this issue.

Bulk bullets have gone up 20% in two years. I don't know if this is both parties raising prices or just one of them. However with the shortage and the issues with the Covid I can't fault my retailer in raising prices to make up for lower demand due to what he can't control.

I have noticed that shotshell components are also in short supply. Can only speculate as to why.

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LarryW posted this 11 December 2020

Nothing available here in Arizona, kind of spooky seeing the ammo & reloading departments at Cabelas completely empty. I did find BR-5 (Unique twin) military contract new powder, 6 pound jugs at GIBrass.com in KY. Needless to say, supposed to be here tomorrow. Bullets, nothing in handgun anywhere except a few odd balls. Been trying to find a buckshot mold for months, nothing ???

A day late & a dollar short, story of my life ???

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Ross Smith posted this 11 December 2020

This is self-inflicted. ALL shooting components and reloading components are out of stock. Hoarding and new come-ers. I just paid 9 bucks for a single box(100) of primers. 

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Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 11 December 2020

flintlocks are starting to look better and better ....

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RicinYakima posted this 11 December 2020

"But capitalism is supposed to protect the consumer from this sort of monopoly action by other suppliers coming into the market to pick up a nice profit and drive the price back down at the same time."

John, do you realize how long it would take to permit and build a facility to make primers? In my state it took ten years to get the inventor of Pyrodex to get a permit! When the facility blew up, the county banned, forever, explosives manufacture. My local gun shop is selling primers and powders at list price. When he can buy them at a price to make a profit, he does. Most of his suppliers will not sell to him for less than 200% of retail. This will all go away in a couple of years. Ric

p.s. Stockpiling when times are good is not hoarding. It is called being prudent.

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Wineman posted this 11 December 2020

Buy what you need when you don't need it. I used to pick up a box/brick of 22LR at Wally-World when I went there. That's a lot of plinking. Shop at an LGS and see a K of primers at $35, cha-ching and on the way home. Guy at the range wants to sell 1,000 30 cal 168 HPBT at a fair price, sure why not. Someone over bought on H4895 and wants $130 for 8#, I'm in. I avoid the panic and overpriced stuff if I can. Remington Thunderbolt 22 LR for the price of Eley Match, no thanks. I've got plenty of lead etc. and I try to keep enough ammo around to have fun and not feel bad at the range.

Caution possible political issues here:

One of my buyers is adamant about the number of dead people voting. I just asked him why only dead Democrats vote? If the dead Republicans also voted there would not be an issue.

It sucks to not be normal. It sucks to have what you love be manipulated, abused and taken away. It sucks that normal disagreement is turned into hate, argument and vitriol. It sucks that not everyone in America gets the same privileges.

We still have one of the most even handed, open minded, dream to reality based, and safest places in the world to live but it takes work to maintain it and the effort is going to things that don't make it better.

Just my humble opinion. Stay safe and have a wonderful holiday season.

Dave

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David Reiss posted this 11 December 2020

I may have mentioned a local mom & pop gun store opened here in my town, first in 40 years. After meeting the owners I found out they needed a gunsmith so I now do most of their work. The situation is like this, the distributors are very low on everything and they sell all they can get in. I mean everything, guns, reloading supplies, AR parts, ect. They call the shop and say I have this in, do you want it yes or no, there is no ordering of anything. This is not because they are new, the owner was the general manager of a local large store for 9 years and had his own business on the side, so he has developed a good supply chain over the years and a good relationship with them all. 

They get say five pistols of a certain kind, he posts on facebook about it to all his followers and within the day they are all sold. We can only make .223 & ,300 Blackout ARs because that is the only parts we can get. The manufacturers are only making those caliber parts to just barely keep up with demand. Sure other calibers are available, but that is only what is in stock. I spoke to a company that makes the best AR mag conversion to 9mm and they said they can hardly make them fast enough. 

Ammo: good luck, we are buying it everywhere we can find it, estate sales have been one of the best sources. All ammo companies are just making 9mm & .223 because the demand is so high. All the primers being made go to those calibers. The prices from distributors is still normal, so they are not gouging, so this shop does not do so. But ammo from all other sources is high. 9mm sells for $30 a box and .223 $14 a box. Primers are selling at $10/$100, but this is because most are coming from hoarders trying to take advantage of people without. 

This is all supply and demand created by the millions of first time gun buyers this year and the hoarding of other owners due to the political climate and covid-19.  

This should not be a shock to anyone, we all saw it coming, we knew what would happen if the election went the way it did, we have seen this before. No surprise at all. The covid situation just made it worse. 

David Reiss - NRA Life Member & PSC Range Member Retired Police Firearms Instructor/Armorer
-Services: Wars Fought, Uprisings Quelled, Bars Emptied, Revolutions Started, Tigers Tamed, Assassinations Plotted, Women Seduced, Governments Run, Gun Appraisals, Lost Treasure Found.
- Also deal in: Land, Banjos, Nails, Firearms, Manure, Fly Swatters, Used Cars, Whisky, Racing Forms, Rare Antiquities, Lead, Used Keyboard Keys, Good Dogs, Pith Helmets & Zulu Headdresses. .

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John Alexander posted this 11 December 2020

Ric sez: "John, do you realize how long it would take to permit and build a facility to make primers?"

========

Yes I do.  I wasn't thinking of anybody starting a new primer plant. I also realize that primers are made all over the world. and that manufactures have some control over production and that it can often be ramped up in fairly short time to take advantage of spikes - adding extra shifts etc. After all, they all want to increase their profits and there is a premium during a shortage..

I think David is right the silliness and hoarding is just simply overpowering how much short term production can be ramped up.

I agree being prudent and hoarding are two different things, but I suspect that you know as well I do that there is a lot of irrational hoarding as well as some semi-rational hoarding to try to make a profit during the next  panic --  thus the $30 boxes of 9mm.   My son knows two different customers who claim to each have over 500 pounds of powder stashed. Few use that much powder in a lifetime. 

John

 

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mashburn posted this 12 December 2020

Hello Duane,

I have been salvaging primers and bullets from loaded ammunition for years. I don't keep the powder because the ammo that I salvage is of unknown powder. I bought about a hundred and seventy-five pounds of reloaded ammo at an estate sale years ago. I don't shoot any reloads that I didn't load myself. The first and last time I fired a cartridge loaded by someone other than myself, I had a very unforgettable experience There were calibers that a lot of people have never heard of including 8mm Siamese Mauser whose cases were formed from 45-70 cases. Most of the ammo was loaded with premium bullets. I pulled the 7mm, 30 and 35 caliber bullets .I poured the powder on the lawn and also salvaged the primers. I use these primers when I'm fireforming wildcat cases. The rest of the ammo, I gave away. If you reload a lot you will occasionally mess up a round or go to the range with test loads and discover that the upper loads are getting too hot. I keep  gallon coffee cans under my reloading bench and these rejects go in the cans. I eventually salvage them as I stated earlier. I use a kinetic puller with a pad of some kind in the bottom of the puller so that the nose of the bullet won't be damaged.

Mashburn

David a. Cogburn

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mashburn posted this 12 December 2020

Hello John,

During the last administration, when  especially the .22 rf ammo was in short supply, there was only one lead smelter in the US that had anything to do with the manufacture of ammo, that was still in operation. They were being fined daily by the EPA. This information came from the pages of the American Rifleman so don't blame me for the info, I didn't create it, I am just repeating what the American Rifleman published.

Mashburn

David a. Cogburn

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Duane Mellenbruch posted this 12 December 2020

Good evening David,

Salvaged bullets and cases and even primers have value and I certainly agree to the practice if practical.  My comment was directed to those with the tendency to load up everything and then find nothing left on the shelf for a different need.  That is when it becomes a lesson in planning ahead.  The pad in the impact bullet puller is prudent.  I use an old foam ear plug. lasts "forever". 

Even nasty stained bullets are readily reusable if wet pin tumble cleaned before use.

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RicinYakima posted this 12 December 2020

Hello John,

During the last administration, when  especially the .22 rf ammo was in short supply, there was only one lead smelter in the US that had anything to do with the manufacture of ammo, that was still in operation. They were being fined daily by the EPA. This information came from the pages of the American Rifleman so don't blame me for the info, I didn't create it, I am just repeating what the American Rifleman published.

Mashburn

 

That was incorrect. The last lead smelter for processing lead ore, was in Missouri. Recycled lead for batteries is still being done in the US.

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