SKILL AND ACCURACY

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  • Last Post 22 December 2013
joeb33050 posted this 03 December 2013

SKILL

We expect that skill and accuracy are related, more skill yielding smaller cast bullet groups. 
How important is skill to accuracy? What is the relationship between skill and group size?
I think it reasonable to assume that in any CBA class, HVY, PBB, PRO or UNR; that most of the shooters, most of the time, use equipment that is similar, sort of “state-of-the-arty".
In a certain class, with identical equipment, conditions and skill, we would expect first place and second place and third place and”¦ place group size averages to be identical-in the long run.
From this, we would expect shooters of varied skill using similar equipment under identical conditions to shoot group place averages that varied with skill; and that that variation was an indication of the effect of skill on group size.

Analysis of 2000-2014 CBA NM group size

100 YARD AVERAGE
RATIOS OF “PLACE” AVERAGE GROUP SIZE 2000-2013 CBA NM HVY, PBB, PRO, UNR

5 SHOT  10 SHOT

SECOND OVER FIRST 1.20 1.21 THIRD OVER FIRST 1.33 1.36 FOURTH OVER FIRST 1.52 1.50 FIFTH OVER FIRST 1.55 1.55

(The ratio of five shot second place finishers to first place finishers was 1.20. Second place finishers shot groups 1.2 times, or 20% larger, than first place finishers.

The ratio of 10 shot fourth place finishers to first place finishers was 1.50. Fourth place finishers shot groups 1.5 times, or 50% larger, than first place finishers.)
Note the similarity between the 5 shot and 10 shot ratios, remarkable and suggesting some underlying truth.
Now, we don't have an ABSOLUTE value of the importance of skill, but we do have some RELATIVE values. 
The ratio of HVY to PRO group size is 1.32, the difference between group size shot with  HVY equipment and PRO equipment.

Third/First place group size was ~1.34, a number much like 1.32. Then skill, between third and first place, was about as important as the equipment difference from third to first place. Important. The ratio of WIND to NO WIND is about 1.06, the difference between groups shot with WIND and with NO WIND. Second/First place group size was ~1.20, THREE TIMES the WIND effect. Important!

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John Alexander posted this 03 December 2013

An observation (probably obvious to all so maybe not worth saying) is that the importance of skill decreases as the class allows heavier and more specialized guns.

Of course the opposite is true of reading the wind a skill that is important to all classes and becomes more important going from hunting rifle class (1.2” groups) to unlimited class (0.4” groups.) .3” error while shooting a 1.2” groups may not hurt too much but the same error while trying to shoot a .4” group will be disaster.

Other than wind the importance of skill tends in the opposite direction. Shooting a 9.5pound 308 with a rounded forend and factory trigger consistently is a lot harder (skill is more important) than shooting a 14 pound heavy class rifle with a flat bottomed forend and a 5 ounce trigger, and much harder than shooting a 30 pound unrestricted class rifle or a rail gun. You might argue that skill is reduced to onlywind reading for the last two examples. However, “machinegunning” a string of shots to get them all off in one wind condition would be a skill beyond simply reading the wind.

I have rambled enough -- just some random thoughts.

John

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Loren Barber posted this 03 December 2013

I believe that a high level of skill is needed to excell in all classes. It may seem easier with a heavy category rifle than a hunter category rifle, but achieving 100 yd groups in the 0.3-0.4's with a heavy rifle and consistently obtaining 1 inch groups with production or hunter category rifles are equally difficult. Table manners are critical! That finger squeezing the trigger is easily overlooked as well as the lungs and heart influence our consistent performance.

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John Alexander posted this 04 December 2013

Loren is right of course. A high level of skill is needed in all classes because the bar for winning scores/groups is higher. I didn't mean to imply that winning in the classes with the more sophisticated equipment is easy. It obviously isn't.

I will stick to my contention that there is more opportunity to “blow one” badly BECAUSE OF TABLE MANNERS while shooting a hunting rifle than when shooting a 30 pound unrestricted rifle, especially if shooting free recoil where the main concern is touching the trigger at the right time. This is not to say that winning in the unrestricted class is easy only that the critical factors tend to shift from bench technique to equipment, loads, and dealing with wind and mirage, all of which become more critical because of the higher level of accuracy required.

Sorry to use upper case but can't figure out how to underline or go to bold.

John

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Tom Acheson posted this 04 December 2013

You have to have your equipment and load all figured out before you show up at a match. Then it comes down to many things but for some of us these are the top 3: Proper set-up at the bench Bench technique Reading and adjusting for the wind

Reminds you of an old golf story....here we find a young golfer on the driving range before a tournament...the young guy was wearing himself out while starting into his second bucket of range balls when the old fart walks up, drops 3 balls down, drives them down range and starts to walk away. The young guy hollers out, hey is that all you are going to do, just 3-balls? The old fart responds...if you didn't bring it with you you won't find it here.

Tom

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billglaze posted this 14 December 2013

I can't help remembering a story about Arnold Palmer at his prime. He was having a bit of a problem with his 5 iron, so, after he finished the tournament round, he went out to the driving range and shot a THOUSAND balls with it. Persistance tells.

In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. My fate is not entirely in Gods hands, if I have a weapon in mine.

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billglaze posted this 16 December 2013

Joe, I'm curious about the use of the term “skill."  Do you mean skill at holding and squeezing, as well as doping out the conditions?  Or do you also include skill at proper casting of bullets, (some folks are bound to be superior to others) and skill in selecting/loading components? It seems to me that there has to be a “gestalt” (Please forgive me my psychiatrist son) in there somewhere, to make the overall result a winner--at least a winner time after time. BTW:  I find your number-crunching to be educational and informative; not something on which to comment until it has been thought through by the reader. Bill Glaze

In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. My fate is not entirely in Gods hands, if I have a weapon in mine.

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RicinYakima posted this 17 December 2013

Bill,

It always come back to “how much do you want to win?” What can you improve? I am not a strong shooter at the bench, there are many others better, especially with the wind. But, I am willing to spend thousands of primers and lots of hours making bullets and the best ammo for “The” rifle. When I go to the line, I know I have the best mechanicals I can make.

Ric

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joeb33050 posted this 17 December 2013

billglaze wrote: Joe, I'm curious about the use of the term “skill."  Do you mean skill at holding and squeezing, as well as doping out the conditions?  Or do you also include skill at proper casting of bullets, (some folks are bound to be superior to others) and skill in selecting/loading components? It seems to me that there has to be a “gestalt” (Please forgive me my psychiatrist son) in there somewhere, to make the overall result a winner--at least a winner time after time. BTW:  I find your number-crunching to be educational and informative; not something on which to comment until it has been thought through by the reader. Bill Glaze "Skill” is whatever causes one shooter/equipment combination to shoot smaller groups than another in “class” matches, absent chance.With equipment “classes", PRO, HVY, etc, the effect of equipment differences is minimized. Conditions are equal or similar. What's left is “skill"-my definition.OrGiven equal equipment and conditions, a set of shooters, in the long run, will have average group size distributed in a certain fashion. The numbers 1.20, 1.33, 1.52, 1.55 estimate this distribution. This distribution defines “skill".

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joeb33050 posted this 17 December 2013

John Alexander wrote: An observation (probably obvious to all so maybe not worth saying) is that the importance of skill decreases as the class allows heavier and more specialized guns.

Of course the opposite is true of reading the wind a skill that is important to all classes and becomes more important going from hunting rifle class (1.2” groups) to unlimited class (0.4” groups.) .3” error while shooting a 1.2” groups may not hurt too much but the same error while trying to shoot a .4” group will be disaster.

Other than wind the importance of skill tends in the opposite direction. Shooting a 9.5pound 308 with a rounded forend and factory trigger consistently is a lot harder (skill is more important) than shooting a 14 pound heavy class rifle with a flat bottomed forend and a 5 ounce trigger, and much harder than shooting a 30 pound unrestricted class rifle or a rail gun. You might argue that skill is reduced to onlywind reading for the last two examples. However, “machinegunning” a string of shots to get them all off in one wind condition would be a skill beyond simply reading the wind.

I have rambled enough -- just some random thoughts.

John I was and am surprised at the relatively small effect that wind has on group size. I keep checking the arithmetic.However, “reading” or compensating for the wind is a “comparison-free” procedure. The flags look a certain way, the shooter holds off a certain way, the bullet makes a hole. Frequently/sometimes the hole location is a surprise. If the hole is where it was wanted, “reading” worked. If the hole is not in the desired location, something is blamed.The process is “comparison-free".If we want to know the effect of ex primer brand on accuracy, we shoot some groups with brand A, other groups with brand B, and compare average group size. We have two things to compare.Shooting in the wind gives us no comparison, we don't know if/how much “reading the wind” helps.One approach is to compare group sizes shot in a tunnel and in the wind.Another is to bolt a gun to a bench, fire it without regard to wind, and have a/some skilled shooters “read” and write down their hold off direction and distance, ex “1/4” 73 degrees".About shooting up to 200 yards. Or, we could look at past data. Wind effect varies as the square of distance, so wind drift at 200 yards is 4 times wind drift at 100 yards. We would expect that more skilled shooters “read” the find better than less skilled shooters, and that better shooters place higher in matches.The ratio of 200/100 yard group size is a measure of the shooter's ability to “read” the wind. The perfect shooter reads the wind perfectly and 200 yard groups are just twice 100 yard group size.Then the ratio of 200/100 yard group size and place, 1st or 2nd or 3rd... in matches should be related. Better shooters, higher places, lower ratios. They aren't related. Extensive analysis show absolutely NO relationship between the ratio and place. How can this be true? The only way I can figure it is that wind has a relatively small effect on group size, and that the process of reading the wind and compensating for it doesn't do much of anything. We think we're doing something, but we're not. This is a conclusion that may not be embraced by all shooters right away, but it's what the numbers seem to say.

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John Alexander posted this 17 December 2013

joeb33050 wrote: Or, we could look at past data. Wind effect varies as the square of distance, so wind drift at 200 yards is 4 times wind drift at 100 yards. We would expect that more skilled shooters “read” the find better than less skilled shooters, and that better shooters place higher in matches.The ratio of 200/100 yard group size is a measure of the shooter's ability to “read” the wind. The perfect shooter reads the wind perfectly and 200 yard groups are just twice 100 yard group size.Then the ratio of 200/100 yard group size and place, 1st or 2nd or 3rd... in matches should be related. Better shooters, higher places, lower ratios. They aren't related. Extensive analysis show absolutely NO relationship between the ratio and place. How can this be true? The only way I can figure it is that wind has a relatively small effect on group size, and that the process of reading the wind and compensating for it doesn't do much of anything. We think we're doing something, but we're not. This is a conclusion that may not be embraced by all shooters right away, but it's what the numbers seem to say. Veeery Interesting.  I too would have expected that the 1st place shooters to also be better at compensating for the wind.  One possibility might be that your assumption of very little range for the effect of equipment and loads within a class is faulty. (I many not understand your assumption so this may not make sense.) If the problem of optimizing the equipment and load has a much greater effect on group size EVEN WITHIN A CLASS than the effect on group size caused by errors in compensating for the wind, then the effect of wind sort of becomes “noise” within the greater variation by equipment and load.  John

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billglaze posted this 17 December 2013

I have always considered that we had things pretty “scienced out” but all our science went out the window when the wind and mirage picked up, thereby upsetting all our best efforts.  It may be time to re-visit my thinking.  Being “raised up” in smallbore outdoor prone really sensitized me to “conditions.”  I'm now beginning to wonder if I could be a victim of overthink.Bill

In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. My fate is not entirely in Gods hands, if I have a weapon in mine.

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Ed Harris posted this 18 December 2013

I always enjoyed shooting the UK or Cdn. “service conditions” where you lined up and were handed the next FAL off the rack, handed a bandolier of ordinary NATO ball, then walked over to the 25m range to check function and zero of your rifle on a “ladder” target. Then you went to the 500 metre line ad shot for record, no sighters, no coaching. You were allowed 7x35 binoculars to look for the spotter.

No excuses on equipment or ammo. Put up or shut up.

That takes skill. Navy and Marine Corps fleet Nd division matches were run the same way. To me always made more sense than NRA shooting.

That's why Dennis Carlini and I are working up .30 cal. gallery loads we can assemble in bulk to issue onthe line. We started doing that in WV or Appleseed events using 03s or US M1917s when. 22 ammo started getting scarce. Gang molds, no gcs, full length sized cases, 6 grains of Bulleye.

73 de KE4SKY In Home Mix We Trust From the Home of Ed's Red in "Almost Heaven" West Virginia

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Ed Harris posted this 18 December 2013

Sorry for typos above. Editing function doesnot work on Android.

73 de KE4SKY In Home Mix We Trust From the Home of Ed's Red in "Almost Heaven" West Virginia

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joeb33050 posted this 19 December 2013

John Alexander wrote: joeb33050 wrote: Or, we could look at past data. Wind effect varies as the square of distance, so wind drift at 200 yards is 4 times wind drift at 100 yards. We would expect that more skilled shooters “read” the find better than less skilled shooters, and that better shooters place higher in matches.The ratio of 200/100 yard group size is a measure of the shooter's ability to “read” the wind. The perfect shooter reads the wind perfectly and 200 yard groups are just twice 100 yard group size.Then the ratio of 200/100 yard group size and place, 1st or 2nd or 3rd... in matches should be related. Better shooters, higher places, lower ratios. They aren't related. Extensive analysis show absolutely NO relationship between the ratio and place. How can this be true? The only way I can figure it is that wind has a relatively small effect on group size, and that the process of reading the wind and compensating for it doesn't do much of anything. We think we're doing something, but we're not. This is a conclusion that may not be embraced by all shooters right away, but it's what the numbers seem to say. Veeery Interesting.  I too would have expected that the 1st place shooters to also be better at compensating for the wind.  One possibility might be that your assumption of very little range for the effect of equipment and loads within a class is faulty. (I many not understand your assumption so this may not make sense.) If the problem of optimizing the equipment and load has a much greater effect on group size EVEN WITHIN A CLASS than the effect on group size caused by errors in compensating for the wind, then the effect of wind sort of becomes “noise” within the greater variation by equipment and load.  JohnI started over annd re-calculated for 5/100, 5/200, 10/100 and 10/200; HVY, PBB, PRO and UNR. The ratios are group size averages, 2nd place / 1st place, 3/1, 4/1 and 5/1. The ratios are eerily constant. Underlying relationship? I don't see equipment differences either contributing to or causing this consistency.  CBA NM 12345 GRAND SUMMARY 2000-2013 5 SHOT 100 YARDS HVY PBB PRO UNR AVG 2/1 1.135 1.188 1.191 1.280 1.20 3/1 1.241 1.329 1.332 1.403 1.33 4/1 1.330 1.486 1.463 1.798 1.52 5/1 1.437 1.485 1.549 1.688 1.54 5 SHOT 200 YARDS HVY PBB PRO UNR AVG 2/1 1.122 1.283 1.165 1.175 1.19 3/1 1.230 1.506 1.340 1.274 1.34 4/1 1.335 1.475 1.454 1.635 1.47 5/1 1.435 1.523 1.523 1.606 1.52 10 SHOT 200 YARDS HVY PBB PRO UNR AVG 2/1 1.140 1.271 1.202 1.209 1.21 3/1 1.279 1.478 1.335 1.346 1.36 4/1 1.405 1.529 1.434 1.650 1.50 5/1 1.538 1.533 1.471 1.663 1.55 10 SHOT 200 YARDS HVY PBB PRO UNR AVG 2/1 1.203 1.266 1.184 1.169 1.21 3/1 1.284 1.511 1.341 1.297 1.36 4/1 1.406 1.475 1.401 1.555 1.46 5/1 1.551 1.573 1.387 1.521 1.51 GRAND AVERAGE HVY PBB PRO UNR AVG 2/1 1.150 1.252 1.186 1.208 1.20 3/1 1.258 1.456 1.337 1.330 1.35 4/1 1.369 1.491 1.438 1.660 1.49 5/1 1.490 1.528 1.482 1.620 1.53

joeb33050 posted this 22 December 2013

In WORD

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JSH posted this 22 December 2013

You can buy accuracy. You can't buy skill. I have shot a fair bit over the past years and went to a lot of shoots to learn and not shoot that day. Still amazes me at how many unskilled try to buy a few targets or points. I have seen excellent shooters take questionable guns and either win or finish very high in the rankings. Of course we all know it is always the gun, lol. Jeff

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