CHANCE AND MATCH RESULTS 1
Skill and technique and equipment play a part in group match results. Chance or luck plays some part in group match results. The number of groups averaged to get the match aggregate, frequently either four or five groups, also plays a part in match results. Using CBA National Match records from 2000 to 2013 and some arithmetic, we find the following:
CHANCE THAT A SHOOTER WINS A MATCH
4 GROUP AGGREGATE
Shooter 1 Shooter 2 Shooter 3 Shooter 4 Shooter 5
77.2% 15.4% 5.1% 1.6% 0.8%
5 GROUP AGGREGATE
Shooter 1 Shooter 2 Shooter 3 Shooter 4 Shooter 5
81.4% 13.5% 3.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Shooters are ranked in order of estimated long run average group size, with Shooter 1 having the smallest, Shooter 2 next, and so on. This is for 5 shot groups.
The “best” shooter wins 77% of the 4 group matches and 81% of the 5 group matches; so that “better” shooters win more 5 group matches and “less better” shooters win more 4 group matches. (See “CHANCE OR LUCK.xls) WORD doc is attached