An accuracy test for Joe B

  • 6.3K Views
  • Last Post 11 March 2016
RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

I'm glad Joe B. and John Alexander pushed me into doing this test, as I was “sure” the results would be different. Shot from just an OK rifle, with iron sights but representative of what a new Military Rifle shooter would use.  

Order By: Standard | Newest | Votes
RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

Here are the results shot over snow, but done in one afternoon so the conditions were the same.  

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

These are the final emails. I think I will more carefully visually inspect, then weight sort!  

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

Here is the 25 shot scanned composite group for nice weight sorted to o.1 grain bullets. I realize that the rifle isn't sighted in, but once I began, I didn't want to change the sight setting.  

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

These are visually inspected to the highest I could see with 2X reading magnifier. Then the weights were selected to have 1/2% variation in each group.  

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

These had a good form, full fill out and mixed weights plus had a flat filed onto the side of the middle drive band.  

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 03 February 2016

So, any interpretation of how you are going to sort your bullets before the next match? I know I'm going to keep the magnifier handy and screen bullet rigorously.

Attached Files

Pentz posted this 04 February 2016

Ric, did you file the flat on the same side of each bullet? ;-) At today's military match at Clark Rifles I had two 99s at 100 (won't mention 200 - differnt load).  I'd sorted my bullets visually and by weight, then mic'd each nose.  Any bullet with any defect, such as frosting, an eliptical nose or other observable variance was relegated to barrel-warming duty.  If I'd get out and practice now....

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 04 February 2016

Pentz, RD in South Dakota always tells me “those who practice the most are the luckiest". Ric  

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 04 February 2016

      Ric,

  Nice work.  Thanks for taking the time to do a well designed and well executed experiment. I hope others will follow your lead and examine other factors by actually doing some shooting.   However, I respectfully disagree with your conclusions.  In dusting off your magnifier and preparing to screen bullets rigorously I think you are jumping the gun in a big way. Using the average of the five 5-shot groups, the apparent decrease in accuracy from your inspected and weigh sorted bullets (W) caused by filing off .8 grain (F) was .129” or 4 percent. This is much too small a difference to be much more than a weak hint that the filing really did degrade accuracy.  It would take quite a few more groups to confirm that the difference was most likely real.   To back up my argument look at the decrease in accuracy (.217” or 8 percent) apparently caused by weigh sorting the bullets (going from W to M.) a practice that most cast bullet shooters firmly believe improves accuracy. I don't believe that weigh sorting bullets makes them shoot worse and I doubt that you do either. However, the evidence that that amazing thing is true is twice as strong as the evidence that the substantial defects hurt accuracy.   The, maybe unpleasant, fact is that if you were to repeat the experiment there is a pretty good chance that the results would show the reverse -- that weigh sorting bullets improves accuracy a little and that filing off .8 grain also improves accuracy a bit. Five groups are simply not enough groups to reliably show that such small differences are probably real. In other words, neither of the tiny differences found with only five groups are significant and are unreliable evidence for making decisions.

John

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 04 February 2016

ric ... thanks for your great efforts ... these certainly are interesting ..... and do make us try to read something into the results ...

if nothing else thanks for letting me know that* somebody * is out shooting ... my hands stop working about 10 feet outside my front door here at the moment ..


especially here, i think sd of impacts would be more informational than extreme group size .... but since the human brain is amazing ... and you scanned in your 25 shot groups ... a quick glance shows that there is not a significant difference in the targets ... dang it i was hoping that those flats would give a 3 foot group .... now i still don't know why a respectable load sometimes throws a few a long long way from center ...

oh, i would still like to see mean radius numbers ...

ken

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 04 February 2016

John,

The only conclusion I have is that five 5-shot groups are meaningless, except for the very grosses of differences. However, completeness of form, good fill out, seems to at least equal to matching weights. Therefore, I will look more closely under the magnifier when sorting bullets, just for luck :)!

Ken,

I have all the targets, nice and pressed flat. Somewhere I have Townsend Whelan's description of how to do mean radius calculations. It is supposed to be 25 degrees colder and clouds blowing over from the coast this weekend. Maybe I will try to work out mean radii on the 25 shot groups. The issue will be the weighted group as there as so many double and triple hits in one hole.

Ric

Attached Files

billglaze posted this 04 February 2016

Ric: Great work.  If you don't have what amounts to statistical proof, then, at the very least, you have an exceptionally good Observational Study! Bill

In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. My fate is not entirely in Gods hands, if I have a weapon in mine.

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 04 February 2016

Bill, I think you are right, and Joe B. agrees. I look at the 25 shot scans side by side on the computer screen and say “Which loading do I take to the match?". Also a picture of the range the day I did these. Don't think you would be there.  

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 04 February 2016

I have been calculating mean radii for a rifle and load test which has been keeping me busy the last 2 months. I don't have scanning software so it is labor intensive.  The results have been interesting and a little confusing.  To date I have completed the calculations on 280 shots which were compiled from 56 five shot groups aggregated as 14 twenty shot groups. Each 20 shots represent a different load.  The two things that have been revelations for me are first that the differences in MR are mostly very small.  I have not had a MR less than .45” or greater than .57” in all that data.  Second the loads array in a different order based on 20 shot MR than they do based on the 4 group agg that makes up the 20 shots.  It is possible to get “donuts” which still have a fairly good agg. BTW according to Wm Davis Jr's work on circular distributions, 4 five shot groups should give you the actual load/rifle potential +/- 17%.  As was mentioned above, it takes a large number of groups to prove the difference between two pretty similar loads. I am not a scientist or an engineer so lets call all of these numbers observations by a math geek. 

Attached Files

Larry Gibson posted this 04 February 2016

<user=50>RicinYakima wrote: John, The only conclusion I have is that five 5-shot groups are meaningless, except for the very grosses of differences. However, completeness of form, good fill out, seems to at least equal to matching weights. Therefore, I will look more closely under the magnifier when sorting bullets, just for luck ! Ric I certainly concur with Ric, 5 shot groups are meaningless.  I have been conducting extensive testing of high RPM cast bullet loads in various cartridges in various rifles with several different cast bullets.  I have been using 10 shot groups as the norm at 100, 200 and 300 yards.  In each and every instance the visually inspected and then weight sorted bullets always shot more accurately when side by side comparisons are done with non visual/weight sorted or just visual inspection bullets with the same load in the same rifle.  The difference in accuracy is much more prominent at 200 and especially at 300 yards.  A load that is developed and is found acceptably “accurate” at 100 yards is all to often presumed to be also as accurate at 200 yards.  Many times that is the case but many times it is not.  All too often the 200 accuracy is abysmal compared to the lessor range 100 yard accuracy.  There is a reason for those “not” cases but I'll not get into that here.  Suffice to say if you are going to shoot matches at 200 yards then load testing should be done at that range.  In doing so we find loads developed for 200 yard accuracy and then used at the 100 yard range the moa accuracy will almost invariably accuracy to be as good if not better than it was at 200 yards.    An example of a recent test; I usually cast between 400 and 500 bullets at a session using a 4 cavity mould.  After visual inspection where any defect/flaw is cause for rejection That usually eliminates 20% +/-.  I then weight sort into .1 gr increments.  I use .1 gr increments to judge the “bell curve” of the weights is consistent with that bullet cast of that alloy.   If the visual and weight sorted selected bullet bell curve is as expected I then do the following; I reject the very few at the top end that are “over weight".  I also reject those that are under weight.  With #2 alloy in the 30 XCB bullet (NOE 310-165-FN) I was usually ending up with about 60% of the bullets cast as being acceptable for HV (2900 fps) longer range shooting (300 yards).    I also have found that segregating and shooting bullets in .1 gr incremental lots was not showing any accuracy improvement at 100 yards over shooting bullets with a weight range of 157.8 - 158.5 gr.  Previous to this and another series of recent testing I had been using bullets of that weight range because they performed very well at 100 yards and appeared to do as well at 200 yards.  However, at 300 yards there would be 1 or 2 and sometimes 3 flyers in every 10 shot test group that opened the group up from what should have been around a 3.2 - 4” group to a 4 - 5+” group.  Obviously something was still wrong with a small % of those bullets.  Time to find out what.   I then loaded up eight 10 shot test strings of the same load with the only variation being the bullets in each test string were equal in weight to .1 gr.  The eight 10 shot tests each increased the bullet weight .1 gr from 157.8 gr to 158.5 gr.  The rifle used is my 30x60 XCB rifle with a Broughton 31” barrel with a 16” twist.  By CBS rules it would fall into the “Heavy Rifle” category. At the completion of the eight 10 shot test strings at 300 yards I measured the groups and graphed the results for a better “visual” of what was happening.  As we see it was the bullets at the lighter weight end that was causing the “inaccuracy.  The bullets of 158.0 - 158.5 gr weight essentially gave equivalent accuracy.   That raised the next question; How would a "lot” of bullets with a weight variation of 158.0 - 158.5 gr shoot?  Well, in a previous linear group dispersion test a few days before  the bullets of 158.0 - 158.5 gr demonstrated linear dispersion from 100 to 300 yards.  Also after the test explained here another linear group expansion test was done at 100, 200 and 300 yards again using the mixed weight “lot” of 158.0 - 158.5 gr bullets.  The results also demonstrated linear group dispersion.  Those are shown in the RPM Threshold thread.  If we look at the CBA match results for Heavy Rifle in the 2015 Nationals we find the moa average for the 9 shooters for two 10 shot groups at 200 yards was 1.373.  Looking at the graph below we find the moa average for six 10 shot groups at 300 yards to be 1.2.  Test after test I have done, especially at 200 and 300 yards demonstrates conclusively the visual and weight sorting are indeed beneficial to accuracy.   LMG

Concealment is not cover.........

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 04 February 2016

LMG wrote: RicinYakima wrote: John,

The only conclusion I have is that five 5-shot groups are meaningless, except for the very grosses of differences. However, completeness of form, good fill out, seems to at least equal to matching weights. Therefore, I will look more closely under the magnifier when sorting bullets, just for luck :)!

Ric I certainly concur with Ric, 5 shot groups are meaningless.  That's not what he said. ONE set of five 5 shot groups doesn't prove anything, but can suggest a lot. When I screwed a new-to-me 22-250 barrel on an action and shot it with a load that shoots averages under 2", and it shoots a 3.071” average, that ain't meaningless. Repeated sets of 5 shot groups will get us closer to proof. I have been conducting extensive testing of high RPM cast bullet loads in various cartridges in various rifles with several different cast bullets.  I have been using 10 shot groups as the norm at 100, 200 and 300 yards.  In each and every instance the visually inspected and then weight sorted bullets always shot more accurately when side by side comparisons are done with non visual/weight sorted or just visual inspection bullets with the same load in the same rifle.  The difference in accuracy is much more prominent at 200 and especially at 300 yards.  Show us the groups, or at least tell us the numbers. Allegations unsupported by data neither prove nor demonstrate anything. A load that is developed and is found acceptably “accurate” at 100 yards is all to often presumed to be also as accurate at 200 yards.  Many times that is the case but many times it is not. Larry, where is the data? How many rifles, what calibers, how many groups? In 55 years of shooting I can remember only ONE case where a rifle shot well at 100 yards and not well, with the same load, at 200 yards. This was a H&R Buffalo Classic 45-70 that shot ~ maybe 1.25” AVERAGES at 100 and did poorly at 200. I always suspected that it was on the ragged edge at 100, and that some development would have brought it around. I've heard the tune about 100 yards accuracy falling apart at 200 yards,  never saw another case. The ASSRA guys like to talk about the 100 yard setup that goes to pieces at 200 yards. I asked for years if anyone saw it with a ~ 200 grain bullet in 32-40 and ~ 14.5/IMR4227. No stories, and never heard one of them claim it.

 All too often the 200 accuracy is abysmal compared to the lessor range 100 yard accuracy.  There is a reason for those “not” cases but I'll not get into that here.  Suffice to say if you are going to shoot matches at 200 yards then load testing should be done at that range.  In doing so we find loads developed for 200 yard accuracy and then used at the 100 yard range the moa accuracy will almost invariably accuracy to be as good if not better than it was at 200 yards.    An example of a recent test; I usually cast between 400 and 500 bullets at a session using a 4 cavity mould.  After visual inspection where any defect/flaw is cause for rejection That usually eliminates 20% +/-.  I then weight sort into .1 gr increments.  I use .1 gr increments to judge the “bell curve” of the weights is consistent with that bullet cast of that alloy.   If the visual and weight sorted selected bullet bell curve is as expected I then do the following; I reject the very few at the top end that are “over weight".  I also reject those that are under weight. What does this mean? Do you reject all below the average? What low weight bullets do you reject? What are the average weights from each cavity? Do you segregate by cavity? Bullets cast in different cavities have different average weights. I have data showing this.

 With #2 alloy in the 30 XCB bullet (NOE 310-165-FN) I was usually ending up with about 60% of the bullets cast as being acceptable for HV (2900 fps) longer range shooting (300 yards).  The standard deviation of bullet weights is around .15 grains. That means that 99% of the bullets cast, that pass the visual inspection, will weigh the average +/-.45 grains. An experienced caster should accept ~ 90-95% of the visually acceptable bullets, and the visually acceptable should be ~ 90% of those cast, so ~80% of the bullets cast should be acceptable. Are you mixing up weight by cavity with total lot weight? I also have found that segregating and shooting bullets in .1 gr incremental lots was not showing any accuracy improvement at 100 yards over shooting bullets with a weight range of 157.8 - 158.5 gr.  Previous to this and another series of recent testing I had been using bullets of that weight range because they performed very well at 100 yards and appeared to do as well at 200 yards.  However, at 300 yards there would be 1 or 2 and sometimes 3 flyers in every 10 shot test group that opened the group up from what should have been around a 3.2 - 4” group to a 4 - 5+” group.  Obviously something was still wrong with a small % of those bullets.  Time to find out what.   I then loaded up eight 10 shot test strings of the same load with the only variation being the bullets in each test string were equal in weight to .1 gr.  The eight 10 shot tests each increased the bullet weight .1 gr from 157.8 gr to 158.5 gr.  The rifle used is my 30x60 XCB rifle with a Broughton 31” barrel with a 16” twist.  By CBS rules it would fall into the “Heavy Rifle” category. At the completion of the eight 10 shot test strings at 300 yards I measured the groups and graphed the results for a better “visual” of what was happening.  As we see it was the bullets at the lighter weight end that was causing the “inaccuracy.  The bullets of 158.0 - 158.5 gr weight essentially gave equivalent accuracy. Nope. You've got one test of 8 ten shot groups. You've proved nothing and not even suggested much. Borderline meaningless. That raised the next question; How would a "lot” of bullets with a weight variation of 158.0 - 158.5 gr shoot?  Well, in a previous linear group dispersion test a few days before  the bullets of 158.0 - 158.5 gr demonstrated linear dispersion from 100 to 300 yards.  Also after the test explained here another linear group expansion test was done at 100, 200 and 300 yards again using the mixed weight “lot” of 158.0 - 158.5 gr bullets.  The results also demonstrated linear group dispersion.  Those are shown in the RPM Threshold thread.  If we look at the CBA match results for Heavy Rifle in the 2015 Nationals we find the moa average for the 9 shooters for two 10 shot groups at 200 yards was 1.373.  Looking at the graph below we find the moa average for six 10 shot groups at 300 yards to be 1.2.  Test after test I have done, especially at 200 and 300 yards demonstrates conclusively the visual and weight sorting are indeed beneficial to accuracy.  Larry, we need explanations of what you did, how you did it, and a look at the groups-or at least the group sizes. Otherwise what you'r giving us is opinions. That's fine, but don't confuse opinion with proof or even suggestion. LMG

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 04 February 2016

Joe B., Sorry, didn't mean to light a fire under you! But a new shooter who gets a rifle and shoots five 5-shot groups only has a suggestion of which load to choose. He will have to shoot a series of five 5 shot groups to narrow the field of possible loads. But if every group of the series is 50% larger, he can forget that combination. However, that may not be bad, as he can work on shooting skills and techniques at the same time. Ric

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 04 February 2016

RicinYakima wrote: Joe B., Sorry, didn't mean to light a fire under you! But a new shooter who gets a rifle and shoots five 5-shot groups only has a suggestion of which load to choose. He will have to shoot a series of five 5 shot groups to narrow the field of possible loads. But if every group of the series is 50% larger, he can forget that combination. However, that may not be bad, as he can work on shooting skills and techniques at the same time. Ric Ric; I agree. My invention of the 5 five shot group test (following my development of the inclined plane)is what I consider the MINIMUM set of groups to tell us or suggest something, and the MAXIMUM bearable number of groups/shots per test. Note: “I consider" Each shot has a certain amount of information. We can't extract more, it ain't in there. The relationship between average group size and number of shots per group is mathematical, not a matter of opinion. Those who staunchly defend the 5 shot or 10 shot or 2 shot group, or mean radius vs c-c distance vs group area vs best-4 of 5 groups shot are like guys who defend the mile, others who like 5280 feet, the 1760 yard crowd the 320 rod defenders and those at the end who contend that 320 poles are better than 320 rods. I like data. Data beats BS every time. And, I'm always right. joe b.  

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 04 February 2016

ric ... remember that you can set up a spreadsheet ... excel ... to crunch the input numbers for you ....even a database or word processor usually has this ability .

one headache to set it up but then it gets fun .

hey maybe joeb or jim could lend us a template in excel to do that for all of us ...

groups are a fun game for a turkey shoot but until you keep shooting and the group doesn't get bigger ..... groups lie a lot ...

ken

oh, and for groups of 2 moa + you can read them to the nearest 1/10 inch ...

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 04 February 2016

oh i havent had my nap today but i think if you take a group and make a dot anywhere to the left and below the group ... then from that dot enter all the x co-ordinates and y co-ordinates in your spreadsheet ... and the no. of shots ....or have the spreadsheet count the entries gee whiz .... it will spit out the sd for x, the sd for y, and the mean radius . i think .

or there are a couple programs that do even more for you .

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 04 February 2016

Ken,

Just entering stuff in excel gives me a headache. I can not make those box thingees on the top do anything. Remember, I was a bucket chemist! Dump 16 rail road tank cars down the mountain and I can give you a pretty good guess of what will happen and what it will take to clean up. I didn't work inside a lab on a computer.:)

Ric

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 05 February 2016

      Well we have a lot of things going on all at once.&nbsp; I would like to bring an elephant back into the room that we would rather ignore.&nbsp; Apparently most who have commented think Ric&#39;s results give a pretty good indication that fairly gross defects concentrated on one side of the bullet hurt accuracy and thus justify culling out much much smaller defects because the the average of five 5-shot groups showed the groups with big defects were 4% bigger. This seems like jumping to a conclusion we like on very weak evidence to me.

  The elephant is that the test results show an even bigger decrease in accuracy when you weigh sort bullets to .1 grain.  We don't like this result. Our reaction is to ignore it. But the average of 5-shot groups, average 10 shot groups, or the 25-shot groups  all show that sorting bullets is bad for accuracy. What is this result trying to tell us?   I am not arguing that we should believe that weigh sorting bullets makes them shoot worse. It seems to me that these results are bopping us on the head with evidence that we should be very skeptical about jumping to conclusions on the effects of weigh sorting OR on the effects of defects based on such small differences and relatively small number of shots fired.   This illustrates a well known human tendency to disregard evidence that is unwelcome and to welcome evidence that supports our existing opinion, no matter how weak. It's part of our nature and like many other temptations we should try to resist it.     John

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 05 February 2016

the better the bullet the worse the group ....

i am thinking i have a chilled bottle of cherry wine in the back of my reefer ...

ken

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 05 February 2016

I find this pretty interesting. I have been “working up accuracy loads for what seems like decades with nothing more than my impression of what and why some combo makes an accurate load. Reading this gives me some insight as to what I don't know and worse, not even knowing what is important statistically.
It would be good to find a simple read to learn the basics.

One thing I would offer from my match experience is to be careful when trying to draw solid conclusions from groups shot at great distance. As the yardage increases the “noise in the data” increase is non-linear. Often one of my proven, very accurate in a previous match loads just shot horrible, and if that days effort was my first or only look at the test load, it would have been dismissed.
The difference in a groups performance on given days is in the unseen or unrecognized environmental conditions. In other words, some days, you just can't read it.

I have found that some days that testing short to be better and then go back and verify-retest long as good conditions allow you to.

Sorry if this does not fit in with the rest of what you are talking about. Just some observations from a long range competitor.

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 05 February 2016

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 05 February 2016

Gentlemen, There is not enough data from this test to determine any point: are the groups because of bullet manipulations, accuracy ability of the rifle or shooter? Is this load making this particular barrel vibrate between nodes, so that everything exiting the barrel is just flipped into space?   So where do we go from here? Well, I plan to run this test again, in the Spring, with the rifle's bedding worked on, just for peace of mind. Others need to run the exact test on their rifle, PM for details if you can't figure our how I did the test, all those targets with only 75 shots.   I guess the conclusion is that if you have a well formed cast bullet, many things are more important than weight sorting or having perfectly formed bullets: a bullet design that the barrel shoots well, load that makes the barrel vibrate at a point the muzzle is steady, acceptable loading skills and shooting skills. I think John is right. If you want to shoot cast bullet matches, work on the basics and don't worry about the minutiae us old guys are fussing about. You will have time for that later.   Ric

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 05 February 2016

RicinYakima wrote: Gentlemen, There is not enough data from this test to determine any point: are the groups because of bullet manipulations, accuracy ability of the rifle or shooter? Is this load making this particular barrel vibrate between nodes, so that everything exiting the barrel is just flipped into space?   So where do we go from here? Well, I plan to run this test again, in the Spring, with the rifle's bedding worked on, just for peace of mind. Others need to run the exact test on their rifle, PM for details if you can't figure our how I did the test, all those targets with only 75 shots.   I guess the conclusion is that if you have a well formed cast bullet, many things are more important than weight sorting or having perfectly formed bullets: a bullet design that the barrel shoots well, load that makes the barrel vibrate at a point the muzzle is steady, acceptable loading skills and shooting skills. I think John is right. If you want to shoot cast bullet matches, work on the basics and don't worry about the minutiae us old guys are fussing about. You will have time for that later.   Ric I'm saving visual inspection rejects, and will shoot them along with visually good bullets sometime soon. Rejects include everything except the half bullets from an inadvertent dribble into the other sprue plate hole. I'm still looking for the doughnut.

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 05 February 2016

The doughnut is with the coffee on the kitchen counter, Joe.

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 05 February 2016

Ken Campbell Iowa wrote: the better the bullet the worse the group ....

i am thinking i have a chilled bottle of cherry wine in the back of my reefer ...

kenOne of the things we look for in data is the reversed result, it tells us that maybe the data is TRUE. One example is the revolver barrel/cylinder gap test run every few years by someone or other. Set a big ?.012"? gap, chronograph; reduce gap, chronograph... At some point, generally, the velocity will go UP as the gap goes DOWN. Not common sense. Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen.http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/Albert_Einstein/>Albert Einstein, (attributed)

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 05 February 2016

RicinYakima wrote: The doughnut is with the coffee on the kitchen counter, Joe.Just a thought: Weight segregating bullets in hopes of increasing accuracy is like eating lotsa doughnuts in hopes of becoming a policeman.

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 05 February 2016

Well, it saves on all that physical fitness training and studying civil service cram books!

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 05 February 2016

RicinYakima wrote: Gentlemen, There is not enough data from this test to determine any point: are the groups because of bullet manipulations, accuracy ability of the rifle or shooter? Is this load making this particular barrel vibrate between nodes, so that everything exiting the barrel is just flipped into space?   So where do we go from here? Well, I plan to run this test again, in the Spring, with the rifle's bedding worked on, just for peace of mind. Others need to run the exact test on their rifle, PM for details if you can't figure our how I did the test, all those targets with only 75 shots.   I guess the conclusion is that if you have a well formed cast bullet, many things are more important than weight sorting or having perfectly formed bullets: a bullet design that the barrel shoots well, load that makes the barrel vibrate at a point the muzzle is steady, acceptable loading skills and shooting skills. I think John is right. If you want to shoot cast bullet matches, work on the basics and don't worry about the minutiae us old guys are fussing about. You will have time for that later.   Ric Ric, Glad to hear that you intend to run the test again. Also glad to hear that Joe will shoot his rejects against good bullets. I hope others will take the time to do the same. I hope to have results of my own new test soon.

I would like to suggest a couple of refinements for anybody doing such testing.  If possible do the tests blind. That is so you don't know which bullet you are shooting until you get home.  This helps to take the human factor out of the test. Tom has suggested a neat and easy way to do this. 

I think Rick may have done the next refinement.  That is to NOT shoot all of one kind of bullet and then the next.  Alternate a, b, and c, so the factors of wind and mirage conditions as well as fatigue are fairly distributed.

i can see something that we haven't seen much of lately possibly coming out of this --progress.

John

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 05 February 2016

rmrix wrote: I find this pretty interesting. I have been “working up accuracy loads for what seems like decades with nothing more than my impression of what and why some combo makes an accurate load. Reading this gives me some insight as to what I don't know and worse, not even knowing what is important statistically.
It would be good to find a simple read to learn the basics.

One thing I would offer from my match experience is to be careful when trying to draw solid conclusions from groups shot at great distance. As the yardage increases the “noise in the data” increase is non-linear. Often one of my proven, very accurate in a previous match loads just shot horrible, and if that days effort was my first or only look at the test load, it would have been dismissed.
The difference in a groups performance on given days is in the unseen or unrecognized environmental conditions. In other words, some days, you just can't read it.

I have found that some days that testing short to be better and then go back and verify-retest long as good conditions allow you to.

Sorry if this does not fit in with the rest of what you are talking about. Just some observations from a long range competitor. Excellent set of observations.  Worth rereading.

John

Attached Files

Larry Gibson posted this 05 February 2016

One thing I learned from sage old winning long range High Power shooter years ago is if you're going to shoot at 1000 yards then test and shoot at 1000 yards. They knew even shooting at 600 yards did not a 1000 yard shooter make. They also advised that developing loads at 100 yards and assuming they would shoot well at 600 and 1000 yards has led to many a bad long range score. Their advise is; develop the load by testing at the actual range that load is to be used at.

Yes the “conditions” are harder to deal with at longer range but they can be dealt with. When testing at 200 and 300 yards if the test results seem be less than satisfactory then a “validation” test group can be fired with a known lot of ammunition. If the validation group is within it's normal accuracy parameters then the test groups can be considered “less than satisfactory” because the conditions probably are not the cause.  If the validation group also exhibits the same “less than satisfactory” discrepancies as the test groups then those discrepancies can be taken into consideration as caused by the conditions when analyzing the test groups.

I realize that looking at what is actually happening “on target” with respect to what can be done is probably meaningless to some who want to only consider what has been done as documented by statistical data.  I have demonstrated recently on this forum that linear group dispersion is not only possible but easily repeated from 100 to 300 yards with cast bullets. I, and others have also demonstrated that visual and weight sorting is indeed beneficial to accuracy. Shooting 6 consecutive 10 shot groups that are basically moa at 300 yards may be “meaningless” to some but to others it is very meaningful indeed.

I do agree if we mostly shoot sedate cast bullet loads in the 1400 - 1600 fps range at 50 and 100 yards then weight sorting probably won't demonstrate any consistent improvement in accuracy over using bullets that just “look good". I do shoot a lot of those kinds of loads and thoroughly enjoy shooting them. However, when we shoot those loads at 200 yards and we still get the same accuracy as has been in the last 10 - 15 years perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised.   If we are questioning why there has been no improvement in accuracy in the last 10 - 15 years and find it acceptable in doing the same thing again and again and then getting the same results again and again should not be too surprising. If we insist group expansion is non-linear between 100 and 200 yards because the last 10 - 15 years match data “proves” it then perhaps we'll not make any improvement in accuracy.  Especially when it is easily and repeatable proven (even using the CBA match results) that group expansion can be linear from 100 to 200 yards.  Wouldn't it be better if we didn't accept the accuracy “status quo” of the last 10 - 15 years?  

Interestingly though joeb has brought up a point that could vastly increase the potential for data......"donuts"! The question(s) become; if I eat a donut before casting will I cast better more accurate bullets? Of course such testing would have to consider the vast assortment of donuts available (perhaps hundreds?) and by eating which kind and how many of that kind may provide the better cast bullet. And then we must consider; does the potential improvement in accuracy from eating a certain type of donut only apply to the casting? We probably should also conduct numerous tests, perhaps hundreds, to determine if eating said donuts before or during the firing of a match will increase the score or decrease the size of the group. And the “blind test” is absolutely essential!  The shooter must be blind folded (if we can't actually find a blind shooter) while shooting so he can't prejudice the test by seeing what kind of donut he is eating........ Yee gads!!! I see the potential for data collection as enormous or possibly endless. Just think of the binders full of EXCELL spreadsheets that could be filled with such pertinent data......why the possibilities are endless........

LMG

Concealment is not cover.........

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 05 February 2016

LMG wrote: One thing I learned from sage old winning long range High Power shooter years ago is if you're going to shoot at 1000 yards then test and shoot at 1000 yards. They knew even shooting at 600 yards did not a 1000 yard shooter make. They also advised that developing loads at 100 yards and assuming they would shoot well at 600 and 1000 yards has led to many a bad long range score. Their advise is; develop the load by testing at the actual range that load is to be used at.

Yes the “conditions” are harder to deal with at longer range but they can be dealt with. When testing at 200 and 300 yards if the test results seem be less than satisfactory then a “validation” test group can be fired with a known lot of ammunition. If the validation group is within it's normal accuracy parameters then the test groups can be considered “less than satisfactory” because the conditions probably are not the cause.  If the validation group also exhibits the same “less than satisfactory” discrepancies as the test groups then those discrepancies can be taken into consideration as caused by the conditions when analyzing the test groups.

I realize that looking at what is actually happening “on target” with respect to what can be done is probably meaningless to some who want to only consider what has been done as documented by statistical data.  I have demonstrated recently on this forum that linear group dispersion is not only possible but easily repeated from 100 to 300 yards with cast bullets. I, and others have also demonstrated that visual and weight sorting is indeed beneficial to accuracy. Shooting 6 consecutive 10 shot groups that are basically moa at 300 yards may be “meaningless” to some but to others it is very meaningful indeed.

I do agree if we mostly shoot sedate cast bullet loads in the 1400 - 1600 fps range at 50 and 100 yards then weight sorting probably won't demonstrate any consistent improvement in accuracy over using bullets that just “look good". I do shoot a lot of those kinds of loads and thoroughly enjoy shooting them. However, when we shoot those loads at 200 yards and we still get the same accuracy as has been in the last 10 - 15 years perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised.   If we are questioning why there has been no improvement in accuracy in the last 10 - 15 years and find it acceptable in doing the same thing again and again and then getting the same results again and again should not be too surprising. If we insist group expansion is non-linear between 100 and 200 yards because the last 10 - 15 years match data “proves” it then perhaps we'll not make any improvement in accuracy.  Especially when it is easily and repeatable proven (even using the CBA match results) that group expansion can be linear from 100 to 200 yards.  Wouldn't it be better if we didn't accept the accuracy “status quo” of the last 10 - 15 years?  

Interestingly though joeb has brought up a point that could vastly increase the potential for data......"donuts"! The question(s) become; if I eat a donut before casting will I cast better more accurate bullets? Of course such testing would have to consider the vast assortment of donuts available (perhaps hundreds?) and by eating which kind and how many of that kind may provide the better cast bullet. And then we must consider; does the potential improvement in accuracy from eating a certain type of donut only apply to the casting? We probably should also conduct numerous tests, perhaps hundreds, to determine if eating said donuts before or during the firing of a match will increase the score or decrease the size of the group. And the “blind test” is absolutely essential!  The shooter must be blind folded (if we can't actually find a blind shooter) while shooting so he can't prejudice the test by seeing what kind of donut he is eating........ Yee gads!!! I see the potential for data collection as enormous or possibly endless. Just think of the binders full of EXCELL spreadsheets that could be filled with such pertinent data......why the possibilities are endless........

LMG

Larry; Does this mean that you're not going to show us some targets or some data? I'm going to get a cruller. How come Dunkin D doesn't have crullers any more? I've got data on THAT.

Attached Files

Larry Gibson posted this 05 February 2016

Joe I recently provided several pages of targets and a lot of data in a thread I started on this forum directly related to what my above post referred to. Your response on that thread was: “Larry, I've gone through this before, years ago, and I still can't read it without dozing off. My advice is: Write a summary, one side of a 3 X 5 card. Then go to 3 pages, 8 1/2 X 11. Then the whole megillah. 1 in 20 will continue after 3X5, 1 in 100 after 3 pages."   So taking your advise the 3x5 card summary is in my first post in this thread which you described as “meaningless".  Well so be it.  For the 3 pages, 8 1/2 x 11 and then quite a bit of the whole megilla you can read it, or go to sleep, in the “Accuracy” sub forum in the thread; “The RPM Threshold".  While not all of the information, extensive test data and targets applies here some pertinent information contained in that data, those targets and the test information does.  I could indeed post a lot of that again here but then Frank would show back up complaining as usual.  No need for that.  We could on the other hand engage in a meaningful discussion pertinent to the topic of this thread if that is possible?   BTW; with 18 years in LE and considerable time as a firearms/marksmanship instructor I have considerable experience with donuts and their subtleties.   LMG 

Concealment is not cover.........

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 05 February 2016

LMG ::: i appreciate your inputs ....progress i think is actually being made in cast shooting i submit ... not so much in breaking the 2 moa barrier in deer rifles, but now we can almost write rules to keep groups under 4 moa ... and 75 per cent under 3 moa ... at least at 100 yards ....heh .

even from my current mode as a lowly bean can plinker i really appreciate those of you that put lots y lots of time and energy into achieving those one-hole groups each and every time . that benefits us all .

ken

Attached Files

Brodie posted this 05 February 2016

LMG, I appreciate your threads very much.  Don't pay any attention to joeb's sniping or carping or what ever you want to call it.  He seems to get off on getting a rise out of others and is usually counter productive to any meaningful discussion. Brodie

B.E.Brickey

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 05 February 2016

      LMG,

  Let me first say that I and many of the folks on this forum are very interested in your group's work in shooting cast bullets at high velocity. I think most of us are prepared to listen with open minds.  We are somewhat familiar with high velocity cast bullets.  H.L. Yarborough won the Unrestricted Rifle class at our nationals in 2007 shooting at 2,700fps out of a 22-inch barrel.    I won't attempt to comment on all the different points in your post #35 but I have a couple.  One is that in your third paragraph you seem to think that CBA competitive shooters need to be urged to weigh-sort bullets and rigorously cull bullets for visual defects. Rest assured that you are preaching to the choir.  Most of our competitive shooters are true believers. Some of us do think this is over done for many of our members shooting at conventional velocities and especially in the one to three MOA range. As a CBA member I'm sure you already know my thoughts on that.   The other point is please forgive us for a little skepticism about shooting linearly expanding groups outdoors to 300 yards. Your test reports show that you can “on demand” shoot ten shot MOE groups at three hundred yards that display linear group expansion.  The reason we are amazed is that contrary to your claim in paragraph 5 that this can be shown in CBA test results, the best CBA shooters can only do this rarely to 200 yards which should be much easier than to 300.  I just examined the match results of our last two nationals for our three best classes that use gas checks and out of 37 comparisons of 100 and 200 yard aggregates for 10-shot groups, only two showed lineal expansion. Linear group expansion is a rare event for us.  Not something our shooters can do often, much less on demand even at 200 yards.   Maybe that feat can only be done at the higher velocities and better wind bucking ability of your loads. And that possibility makes the potential of high velocity shooting interesting.  You mentioned in another thread that you intended to shoot in some CBA registered matched this year. I think that is a good idea -- and overdue. I know you are an experienced competitive rifle shooter and with the kind of accuracy you have reported you should easily win any CBA 200 yard match you enter. Such a win would bring a lot of creditability to your group's work. I will look forward to the results. I agree with you that we need to do different things to improve our cast bullet accuracy I'm just not sure what they are.  Maybe your high velocity work will help. We will see.   John

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 06 February 2016

LMG wrote: One thing I learned from sage old winning long range High Power shooter years ago is if you're going to shoot at 1000 yards then test and shoot at 1000 yards. They knew even shooting at 600 yards did not a 1000 yard shooter make. They also advised that developing loads at 100 yards and assuming they would shoot well at 600 and 1000 yards has led to many a bad long range score. Their advise is; develop the load by testing at the actual range that load is to be used at. Yes the “conditions” are harder to deal with at longer range but they can be dealt with. When testing at 200 and 300 yards if the test results seem be less than satisfactory then a “validation” test group can be fired with a known lot of ammunition. If the validation group is within it's normal accuracy parameters then the test groups can be considered “less than satisfactory” because the conditions probably are not the cause.  If the validation group also exhibits the same “less than satisfactory” discrepancies as the test groups then those discrepancies can be taken into consideration as caused by the conditions when analyzing the test groups. And then we must consider; does the potential improvement in accuracy from eating a certain type of donut only apply to the casting?  The shooter must be blind folded (if we can't actually find a blind shooter) while shooting so he can't prejudice the test by seeing what kind of donut he is eating........ LMGLarry, your first two paragraphs sum up what we do when working up a Creedmoor load and often I take more than one rifle with me as a cross check. So you got that part right. I do this just to get a sense of, ..."is this me?, A condition I am not seeing?, or the load?, or is my %^& stock screw backed off again"???

 I call this noise in the data. When you are driving them all in there, especial at 1000y, you know the load is working. When they are not going in, you are not sure why.  The problem is we can't prove the negative.  Again, too much noise in the data.

 I know how to do this kind of load testing. I call it the sledgehammer method. Just keep trying until it gets worked out but I want to learn a little more about statistical testing. And for that, all this other noise in the data shooting at distance is not helpful in learning about sorting cast bullets.

 The above kind of testing gives us an impression of what loads might be best, to call our “match loads". And frankly, every match I shoot, weather it is a monthly local match or the nationals, is a test and confirm day. I am always looking at my stuff and so is everyone else there too. We can't help it. What you have described above is a seat of the paints thing.  Your “sage old winning long range High Power shooter” told you about LR is true and “Yes the “conditions” are harder to deal with at longer range but they can be dealt with” is seat of the paints and is exactly what we do but it is not what I think the focus of this post is.

 We can easily prove the good shooting loads but we can not tease out the reason for the less than good ones at LR.  It's that Noise in the data thing again.  However, known good loads do not always fill up the X ring every day.  A good load is always a happy day. But that same ammo tomorrow may not turn in a good performance due to unknown conditions. There is SO Much air and light going on between the muzzle and half a mile down range. Not all days are created equal. Not even all relays are created equal. Getting good data, the kind this post is about would be beyond improbable with out the much wished for, 1000 yard indoor range.  :shock:

I am into learning something new and would volunteer to do a test for my own selfish reasons but if it would provide another data point to look at that would be great too.

 A note on Donuts. Aside from not eating them anymore; I descriptively call some groups, donuts. They would be a great example of a non-linear event. These are loads that shoot well short and continue to be good round groups at distance that lack density in the center. I believe minor yaw to be the cause of most of this. A number of reasons might account for it. Some common reasons include the bullet starting off in yaw due to excess runout, or bullet slump or too much bullet for the twist. There are others... For what it is worth, I have seen the vapor trail helix of unstable (or yaw) bullets screaming down range through my spotting scope. Pretty neat to see.

Enough, sorry for this rant about bad LR data took so long. I am all in for learning something about sorting bullets. BTW- I stopped weighting match bullets a few years ago. Still shot well... even set a 600yd NRA record in 2013 but I have started weighting again.  Is there a twelve step program for weighting bullets? Pretty much all my comments are about testing at LR, not short range.

 I've got my Nomex paints on. :cool:Michael Rix    PS-I wrote this fast, if it does not read well I'll fix it later..>

Attached Files

Larry Gibson posted this 06 February 2016

rmrix

Sure know what you mean about them “donuts” when shooting. One time I was shooting 600 yard SF SR with my match M14. 1st record shot went just off the X ring at 1 o'clock. 2nd shot was just off the X ring at 2 o'clock. 3rd shot was 2:30 just off the X ring. Against what the back of my brain was yelling at me not to do I went 1/2 moa (actually closer to 3/4 MOA on Match M14s back then)left and the 4th shot went into the 9 ring at 9 o'clock. I went back right that 1/2 moa and the 5th shot went just off the X ring at 3 o'clock. Went like that for the remainder of the match with each shot continuing to circle the X ring. Ended up with a 199 - 0 X. So it goes........

LMG

Concealment is not cover.........

Attached Files

frnkeore posted this 06 February 2016

You want donuts? I got donuts (well just one actually). I've shot the same load in my 33 cal Borchardt for 3 years. The RPM is 75,600 for my load.  The rifle has shot a .463, five shot group @ 200 and 10 shots as small as 1.3 @ 200. It rarely shoots over 1.1 MOA with 10 shot groups @ 200. The 25 ring is 1.5" Riddle me this......... why did this happen?  A perfect 240. I held twice for conditions, not more than 3/8", right and 1/4” elevation. The first 2 shots where the double at 8 o'clock. The 10 shot group was shot just before and the sight adjustment gave me a well centered sighter before starting the score target. It's actually the only perfect 240 that I've ever seen. Frank

Attached Files

Mike H posted this 06 February 2016

Thanks to all of you who have contributed to this discussion,it is entertaining and as well informing,in Australia we are possibly not into donuts,as much as in the USA,even though they are here,in our rifle shooting speak,we often refer to hollow groups,which are the same thing.Even if our loads and rifles are near perfect,as we think we are,there are times that it seems a higher power has decided otherwise.So long as can enjoy our shooting and not put others off,by their thinking that there is a snobbery class,that they are incapable of acheiving,all is well.Mike.

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 06 February 2016

<user=3132>frnkeore wrote: You want donuts? I got donuts (well just one actually). I've shot the same load in my 33 cal Borchardt for 3 years. The RPM is 75,600 for my load.  The rifle has shot a .463, five shot group @ 200 and 10 shots as small as 1.3 @ 200. It rarely shoots over 1.1 MOA with 10 shot groups @ 200. The 25 ring is 1.5" Riddle me this......... why did this happen?  A perfect 240. I held twice for conditions, not more than 3/8", right and 1/4” elevation. The first 2 shots where the double at 8 o'clock. The 10 shot group was shot just before and the sight adjustment gave me a well centered sighter before starting the score target. It's actually the only perfect 240 that I've ever seen. Frank Your left hand target is what I'm talking about. “...why did this happen?” If you shoot enough targets, everything happens. Your target happens, A .463” five shot group @ 200 happens, 10 shots at 1.3” @200 happens. All shots to the left, or right, or high, or low happens. If enough monkeys have enough typewriters and enough time, one will eventually type Macbeth. AVERAGES tell the story about a setup's expected accuracy. If imperfect bullets, weight or visual defects, cause those bullets to fly off-center, then if a lot of the bullets are randomly radially (= defect randomly oriented clockwise) inserted in the chamber and fired, I would expect that the group would be doughnut-shaped, the imperfections causing each bullet, on average, to hit away from the center. Doughnut. The diameter of the doughnut should be related to the degree of imperfection. Large numbers of imperfect bullets don't shoot doughnut-shaped groups. Somewhere between many and most imperfect bullets hit near the center. This suggests to me that we do not know how an imperfect bullet is affected in it's flight by the imperfection. Sets of 50 shots with damaged = filed base bullets.

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 06 February 2016

Testing this is easy, 100 22LR cartridges, a file and ANY rifle at 50 or 100 yards. File a v into the side of 50, same place same size. Put the filed ones in the rifle without orienting them. Fire them all, same day, ~ same time. Put a dollar bill or a quarter on the target for scale, photograph the target and post it here. No casting, no loading, cheap, easy, no statistics.  

joeb33050 posted this 06 February 2016

And/or you could shoot groups with 22s, perfect, and with v of various sizes filed in them. Here with v of .1 and .3 grain. Old PMC Match, 12/15 BSA Martini, 50 yards. Note that the bullets with .3 grain v shot smaller average groups than those with .1 grain v. Revolver cylinder-barrel gap effect.

joeb33050 posted this 06 February 2016

Perhaps the lack of improvement in cast bullet accuracy is related to the lack of experimentation and results-sharing by cast bullet shooters.

If we don't experiment, we don't find what helps.

If we experiment and don't share results, nobody knows what helps or doesn't.

Perhaps it's this lack of experimenting and sharing results that makes me prickly. There's a lot of blathering on the forum, and damn few pictures of targets or data.

Maybe we'd rather talk than shoot? Like old coots? Maybe we need a hot stove and tea.

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 06 February 2016

joeb33050 wrote: Perhaps the lack of improvement in cast bullet accuracy is related to the lack of experimentation and results-sharing by cast bullet shooters.

If we don't experiment, we don't find what helps.

If we experiment and don't share results, nobody knows what helps or doesn't.

Perhaps it's this lack of experimenting and sharing results that makes me prickly. There's a lot of blathering on the forum, and damn few pictures of targets or data.

Maybe we'd rather talk than shoot? Like old coots? Maybe we need a hot stove and tea. Well, I won't venture a guess at to what makes you prickly but I'll have to admit that Keyboard shooting which is all over the internet makes me prickle a bit. But my shy, timid, and retiring nature prevents me saying what I would like to sometime.  We might put off that ulcer is if we all spoke out more -- but politely of course.

As to your first three sentences you are absolutely right of course.  Old guys like to claim that the past was better but reading old Fouling Shots shows that as far as cast bullet experiments and sharing of results it really was better in the 1980s and 90s. it wasn't perfect. We had guys cooking the books to prove that without indexing of both bullet and case and weigh sorting to a tenth grain accuracy was terrible and magically all cured by doing those things. But we had others running experiments to show that accuracy wasn't so bad without either of those bothers. That's the way it's supposed to work.

Ric's recent experiments which he reported to start this thread is an excellent example doing something “to find out instead of just BELIEVING.  We need a lot more work like Ric's. 

John

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 06 February 2016

 Joe wrote:

"Large numbers of imperfect bullets don't shoot doughnut-shaped groups. Somewhere between many and most imperfect bullets hit near the center.This suggests to me that we do not know how an imperfect bullet is affected in it's flight by the imperfection.

Joe, 

Thanks for posting two more of your experiments. I believe your conclusion is wrong. I think we do know how a spot void in a bullet affects it's flight. Mann demonstrated it. Husker did it and posted it to this forum, or provided a link I can't remember which. Vaughn gave a formula for calculating it.  However, skepticism is alway appropriate we need more of it.

I gave you my opinion in another thread why I thought you weren't getting a donut but of course that was just my theory and such things shouldn't be believed without proof.  I will try to deliberately shoot a donut in the next week or so. Successful or not I will post the results.  I may be slowed a bit because last night snow will require snowshoeing to change targets.  No sacrifice is too great in the search for CB truth.

John

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 06 February 2016

RicinYakima wrote: Gentlemen, There is not enough data from this test to determine any point: are the groups because of bullet manipulations, accuracy ability of the rifle or shooter? Is this load making this particular barrel vibrate between nodes, so that everything exiting the barrel is just flipped into space?   So where do we go from here? Well, I plan to run this test again, in the Spring, with the rifle's bedding worked on, just for peace of mind. Others need to run the exact test on their rifle, PM for details if you can't figure our how I did the test, all those targets with only 75 shots.   I guess the conclusion is that if you have a well formed cast bullet, many things are more important than weight sorting or having perfectly formed bullets: a bullet design that the barrel shoots well, load that makes the barrel vibrate at a point the muzzle is steady, acceptable loading skills and shooting skills. I think John is right. If you want to shoot cast bullet matches, work on the basics and don't worry about the minutiae us old guys are fussing about. You will have time for that later.   Ric Ric, I've poked around looking for the posts that lead up to your test and one that describes how I might do this also. Have not found it. Was this done in PM and if so can you PM how you set up this test.

It's winter. Today is match day.  Assuming good weather, I would be at the range now. Some winters we get lucky and we don't miss a match. Today there is about a foot+ snow laying on the flats and three feet drifted into some of the berms, and I am drinking coffee in front the fire wishing I were at least shooting something to expand my knowledge. "Shooting something” -As in dreaming about setting up and shooting your 75 shot test, would be good. Maybe I will just shoot some offhand at 50 feet with the 22 today.  .....

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 06 February 2016

I read about this process maybe 25 years ago, and I think it is valid. Hang a target and fasten it well. This is the backer, place another target over it matching corners. Then a face target over those two matching corners. Shot five shots. Replace the face target and shot five more shots, then remove it and the ten shot group under it. Replace the two targets leaving the backer. At the second set, leave off the middle target for the last 5 shot group. In this test, I did three side by side sets, one for each bullet.   I normally practice by shooting three 10-shot groups over one backer. That one I bring home and keep. As the year progresses, I can see that the 30 shot groups get better as the year goes along. But I get stale over the winter and have to start new each spring.

Attached Files

Brodie posted this 06 February 2016

  The other point is please forgive us for a little skepticism about shooting linearly expanding groups outdoors to 300 yards. Your test reports show that you can “on demand” shoot ten shot MOE groups at three hundred yards that display linear group expansion.  The reason we are amazed is that contrary to your claim in paragraph 5 that this can be shown in CBA test results, the best CBA shooters can only do this rarely to 200 yards which should be much easier than to 300.  I just examined the match results of our last two nationals for our three best classes that use gas checks and out of 37 comparisons of 100 and 200 yard aggregates for 10-shot groups, only two showed lineal expansion. Linear group expansion is a rare event for us.  Not something our shooters can do often, much less on demand even at 200 yards.

  I realize that there is some controversy over linear expansion of cast bullet groups shot at in creasing ranges, but a great deal of the controversy seems to center around the fact that groups seldom would graph EXACTLY LINEARLY .  So what!!!  Such things rarely work out perfectly, and I would personally be cautious of results that could graph in a PERFECT straight line.  You guys sound like my wife and I arguing:  We are saying the same thing just with different words.  If we were to slow down and LISTEN and pay attention to the other person ya'll would find out that you don't have a disagreement at all, or folks are just being nit picky for the heck of it.

Brodie

Ok I've aired my pet peeves for the month.

B.E.Brickey

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 06 February 2016

Things just got way out of control.  Once it starts it only get worse.  I have deleted 4 or 5 posts and edited out what I judged to be an aggressive paragraph in another.

There are going to be differences in opinion and adults should be able to handle that without accusing others of bad intentions, cowardliness, close mindedness, incompetence, etc.

Please everybody take a deep breath.

Several posters have commented that they have been enjoying this thread lets not screw it up.

John

Attached Files

45 2.1 posted this 07 February 2016

joeb33050 wrote: Perhaps the lack of improvement in cast bullet accuracy is related to the lack of experimentation and results-sharing by cast bullet shooters.

If we don't experiment, we don't find what helps.

If we experiment and don't share results, nobody knows what helps or doesn't.

Perhaps it's this lack of experimenting and sharing results that makes me prickly. There's a lot of blathering on the forum, and damn few pictures of targets or data.

Maybe we'd rather talk than shoot? Like old coots? Maybe we need a hot stove and tea. OK Joe..... I'll share some of the things I've observed over the last 40 some odd years of cast shooting. I started my quest for accuracy because H. M. Pope said the 45-70 wasn't accurate.... he was wrong on that, one of the few things he wrote that wasn't accurate. Through quite a few very detailed tests, I've found that very few things affect accuracy in dramatic ways. Bullet design is one and what your bullet is alloyed out of is another. Bullet alloy needs to have very low amounts of antimony in it.... like 2% or less with 0.25% tin with trace amounts of arsenic. If you heat treat that alloy, you can go to 2,400 fps easily with exceptional accuracy. I have cast several alloys (50/50 WW/Pb, WW, #2 and RR babbitt) out of one SC mold that was known to produce very good accuracy. Each alloy was cast as air cooled  and water dropped, sized before each test sequence with the same lube in the same die. Proper cadence to have a tight heat cycle in the mold was observed with a very low weight variation. Bullets were sorted by eye with no visual defects.  All were shot with a known accuracy load in an old 308 position rifle. The difference in group sizes were astonishing. Basically it showed that any bullet that had increased amounts of antimony/tin gave a lot poorer accuracy than the amounts listed above, regardless of the heat treatment. These tests were conducted several times over a year, each time under the same conditions for each set and gave the same results relative to the weather shot in. All were loaded the same way and tested at short and long range. For those cartridges producing 40K or less it seemed that more the alloy constituent   used, the poorer the accuracy. This was especially true in the 45-70 which was tested before this series.

I don't own digital camera and can't produce proof for you as this was done pre computer and digital camera. Try it out for yourself to see if it works or doesn't for you as this is my observation.

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 07 February 2016

      Brodie,

  Since your post #54 quotes me and goes on to take issue with what I said I will try to clarify my remarks. I agree with you completely that we shouldn't expect any data to fit “exactly” or “perfectly”.  With rare exceptions any data that is reported to more than two places can't be replicated and seldom to even two.  I also strongly agree with you that we should “be cautious of results that could graph in a perfect straight line.”   Because I feel that way, I was surprised that you thought I was talking about a perfect, or near perfect, linear expansion and was nit picking when I argued that the CBA's best shooters with the best guns and a batch of wind flags they have been using for years can only do it rarely even at the much easier distance of 200 yards much less “on demand.”   Your remarks inspired me to go back to the results of our two most recent nationals I used before to see how far off perfect linear expansion they were. I averaged the 100 and 200 yard 10-shot aggregates and found that the 200 yard averages instead of being twice the 100 yard averages (expanding linearly) were slightly over three times as big as the 100 yard averages or 50 percent off. This isn't just one individual match but for 37 attempts, a fairly healthy sample size. I respectfully contend that being off 50 percent isn't usually considered a nit.   Later in your post you urge us to “slow down and listen and pay attention to the other person.”  That is excellent advice that we should all take. I would add -- give the other person the benefit of the doubt and respect his intelligence and intentions.  Although that doesn't mean you shouldn't disagree with him if you have contrary evidence.   John

Attached Files

John Carlson posted this 07 February 2016

It's a long winter :coffee. I'm very much enjoying the congenial discourse :cusout: in all these discussions and am finding them very educational :idea1:. Hopefully in another couple of months we'll find out if I actually learned anything :hunt:. Thank you all for both the information and the entertainment!:thumbsup:

John Carlson. CBA Director of Military Competition.

Attached Files

HuskerP7M8 posted this 07 February 2016

Hope this works? Landy

“In God we trust; all others must bring data.” “Without data, you're just another person with an opinion.” “If you can't describe what you are doing as a process, you don't know what you're doing.” “It is not enough to do your best, you must know what to do, and then do your best.” W. Edwards Deming (October 14, 1900 - December 20, 1993)

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 07 February 2016

Wow! what you said? Is? I need it simpler please. Ric

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 07 February 2016

Landy,

It worked.

Wow! Now we have something to chew on.

Thanks for taking the time to run Rick's results through your magical machine.    John

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 07 February 2016

HuskerP7M8 wrote: Hope this works? Landy Wow,  and thank you! I am hoping to learn.

I do have a question regarding the highlighted in red.  It is in this statement you wrote:

 "The GAP software is a modified version of CEP (Circular Error Probable) and I can remember a few of you mentioning CEP in past threads. Simply put it measures the circular diameter where 50% of the shots fall. Because all rifles shoot a pattern of shots where the density is always higher toward the center, this statistic isn't sensitive to the number of shots in a group and it uses “all” of the shots instead of just the two widest as is used when measuring group ES (Extreme Spread).”

This assumption flags for me and I wonder where this idea comes from? It may well be true. I am not contesting this but rather just wondering.  And, if this assumption is not valid, what would it do to the program outcomes?

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 07 February 2016

just an attempt to hopefully simplify descriptions of our groups ::

mean ( or average ) radius .......... is the average distance the shots are from the center of the group ........if your gun is perfectly sighted in, this could be thought of as your score on a bull/ring target . ....

standard deviation of locations ..... is a little more descriptive of the group ... it throws in a little feeling of how consistent the shots are from the center of the group......... but sd is better used as an aid after other descriptions are evaluated .  both are useful, the mean radius is more better easy to digest .


oh ... group extreme spread ... the only valid value this gives is if you shoot until the group doesn't get any bigger ... for a deer rifle i am guessing around 100 to 200 shots ... sounds bad but at 5 shots mean radius and sd are not too meaningful either .

exception to group extreme shots validity : big groups won't get smaller but small groups will get bigger . so when developing loads and you get a huge group you can stop shooting that load .

ken

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 07 February 2016

Very nice, Landy. There is an excellent article in the old “Handloading” published by the NRA many moons ago.  The author of the article, and the editor of the book, is Wm C Davis Jr. I believe he was heavily involved in the original work developing circular distribution probabilities and mean radius statistics.  Be that as it may and please correct on that if I have that wrong.  His article on page 88 develops circular distribution probabilities based on the number of trials (groups).  Underlying his work is the base assumption that the bullet strikes will be normally distributed along both the X axis and Y axis give enough shots.  He represents this as an assumption that has stood up well to his and others thorough testing.  There are two graphics included in this article that apply directly to our who conversation in this thread. I don't know that I am free to photogragh these and post them given copyright laws??? If you have this manual, take a look.  It provides an excellent “common understanding". Jim

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 07 February 2016

On a related note I have been able to produce the group distribution graphics included in Landy's work in Excel.  I doubt that my rough and dirty work matches Landy's excellent graphics.  The point of this note is to say if you have Excel and are willing to enter the coordinates of the bullet strikes by hand, you can readily calculate mean radius and produce the scatter diagram for each group or aggregation of groups. What I have not been able to do is to overlay the mean radius, as a circle, onto the scatter graph of the group.  I one of you guys knows how to do this, I would really like to be educated. Great thread! Jim

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 11 February 2016

HuskerP7M8 wrote: Hope this works? Landy SO..................

Not many of us looking at this....

Is the conclusion that 2X or 3X additional data points needed to make any of this valid?

No answer on the group density question - maybe it will still come :dude:

B)B)B)B)B)B)B)B)B)B)B)B) Michael Rix

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 11 February 2016

Need spring for most folks to be able to shoot here in the Northland. Hopefully some will take up the challenge of weight sorting.

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 15 February 2016

I was casting bullets several days ago and it was COLD!  It was about 5 degrees and I was casting in an unheated garage.  Long story shot, I was impatient to start before everything came up to operating temperature.  The first 30 or so bullets were heavily wrinkled.  Rather than remelting them I kept them and tested them against good bullets.  I ran the test today.  It was 23 degrees with a 10 mph wind on the range.  I was also using a rifle which is accurate with jacketed bullets but until today untried with cast. Bear with me as I think it will be four frames before I get all of the pictures posted.  Here is a picture of the wrinkled bullets

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 15 February 2016

The first bullet up today was the 311299.  This is not part of the test.  I am posting the picture only to aid in evaluating the pictures that follow.  The photo contains 3 - 5 shot groups with a 3 group of 1.7".  The mean radius for this group (15 shots) is .66"

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 15 February 2016

Next up is the target with the “Good” bullets. There obviously did not shoot quite as well as the 311299s but thats not the point here is it. I alternated 5 shot groups between the good bullets and the wrinkled bullets.  as I was there alone, this could not be a blind test.  The 4 - 5 shot group agg shown here is 2.00”  The mean radius is .76"

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 15 February 2016

Finally here is the graphic of the 20 shots fired with wrinkled bullets.  Again these were shot on an alternating basis with the good bullets.  This entire test took almost 2 hours of range time.  I was damn cold by the time the shooting was finished.  The 4 group agg here is 1.9” and the mean radius was .75".  While these are ever so slightly better than those of the good bullets, I think we can agree that is meaningless.  

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 15 February 2016

This 3rd graphic looks very different from the first two.  Despite the fact that the group agg and mean radius were comparable or even a little better, the group is must more scattered.  Is this random luck or would additional shooting begin to separate the wrinkled from the good? I can't say but I would thought I would share the results anyhow. 

Attached Files

rmrix posted this 16 February 2016

Thanks for posting this! May I ask; which way was the 10 mph blowing? Did you try to make sight corrections for wind conditions?

-Michael

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 16 February 2016

5 o'clock. No sight corrections as it was a fairly steady breeze. Once you start you can not move the scope as the individual groups could no longer be rolled up into one large group.

BTW I find it very interesting that the centers of the two groups are not at the same coordinates. In a perfect world they should be. If these distributions of bullet strikes were “complete” I would expect the centers to get closer to one another.

Attached Files

RicinYakima posted this 16 February 2016

Interestingly, in the filed bullet test for Joeb the group center also went low and left. Is the barrel a right hand twist?

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 16 February 2016

JHS wrote: Finally here is the graphic of the 20 shots fired with wrinkled bullets.  Again these were shot on an alternating basis with the good bullets.  This entire test took almost 2 hours of range time.  I was damn cold by the time the shooting was finished.  The 4 group agg here is 1.9” and the mean radius was .75".  While these are ever so slightly better than those of the good bullets, I think we can agree that is meaningless.  I don't agree that it's meaningless. put together with Ric's, bjornb's and mine, it starts to tell a story.

I keep counting 18 shots here, are there 2 doubles? If so, where?

Thanks; joe b.

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 16 February 2016

Ric - RH twist.  The rifle is a CZ varmint weight 308. Joe - the doubles are both in the straight line of hits right about the group center.  So there are 8 shots in that string - very strange.  You could well be right that globally we are getting a pattern.  That's why I only shoot and you observe and think. :) Jim

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 16 February 2016

Jim, Good work. You win the purple butt award for dedication above and beyond. I'm trying to picture Joe transplanted from FL to your range. Did you sit on plastic so you wouldn't freeze to the stool?

I'm not sure what pattern Joe sees. I guess he will tell us in due time.  I was struck with the similarities of both the wrinkles and the results to my article in FS #213.  In both tests wrinkles way beyond visual sorting on the bad side grouped slightly better than the “good” bullets.  The differences between our tests, aside from the diameter of the bullets, were that I shot 12 groups instead of eight (but also shot the groups alternatively -- one good, one wrinkled, etc.)  And groups with good bullets averaged .82 MOA and the wrinkled groups averaged .78 MOA.   If this isn't slowly piling up evidence that even pretty badly wrinkled bullets will shoot as well as visually perfect bullets even at sub-minute levels someone will have to explain it to me.

John  

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 16 February 2016

JohnActually I was sitting on plastic!  I have enough wrinkled bullets left to shoot another 2-3 groups.  The odd shape of the wrinkled group is interesting.  I need to see if another 15 shots will fill it in somewhat. Also on a better day I think I can push the mean radius down on both groups.  That might make it easier to see a real difference.   Jim

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 17 February 2016

JHS wrote: JohnActually I was sitting on plastic!  I have enough wrinkled bullets left to shoot another 2-3 groups.  The odd shape of the wrinkled group is interesting.  I need to see if another 15 shots will fill it in somewhat. Also on a better day I think I can push the mean radius down on both groups.  That might make it easier to see a real difference.   JimJHS I'm collecting these accounts of shooting results with less-than-perfect bullets. Would you send me your results as sort of an article with pictures etc.? Thanks; joe b.

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 17 February 2016

Joe Sure.  Its going to be a balmy 21 degrees today but there is not supposed to be any wind.  I have 15 more wrinkled bullets so I am going to shoot another 30 rounds.  This will make each sample (good and wrinkled) 35 shots.  I want to see if the center of that wrinkled bullet group will fill in.  If all goes well, I will post the two 35 shot aggs later today. Should this be a reference piece or more of an article? Jim

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 17 February 2016

JHS wrote: Joe Sure.  Its going to be a balmy 21 degrees today but there is not supposed to be any wind.  I have 15 more wrinkled bullets so I am going to shoot another 30 rounds.  This will make each sample (good and wrinkled) 35 shots.  I want to see if the center of that wrinkled bullet group will fill in.  If all goes well, I will post the two 35 shot aggs later today. Should this be a reference piece or more of an article? JimAs long as the facts are there, who, what, when. Can you include the 5 shot group sizes? I'm saving rejects and will shoot them soon. All the results are of interest-weighed vs. not, wrinkled vs smooth ? vs ? Thanks; joe b. “Data, don't you love them?"  

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 17 February 2016

Will do.  Sorry I didn't weigh anything.

Attached Files

joeb33050 posted this 17 February 2016

JHS wrote: Will do.  Sorry I didn't weigh anything.You looked at wrinkled vs smooth. Ric looked at weighed vs not. I looked at intentionally damaged vs ~ perfect. Only Ric needed to weigh. Weighed wrinkled vs weighed unwrinkled vs unweighed wrinkled vs unweighed unwrinkled makes my head hurt. You did good. joe b.

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 17 February 2016

OK  It was 28 degrees and not a breath of wind on the range.  I was bundled up like a snow man and never got cold.  I fired 15 more shots with wrinkled bullets and 20 more with good bullets because I had them.  We have a bunch of numbers if I can figure out how to cummunicate them. First the calculated center of the group.  After the first 8 groups (4@) the two centers were almost an inch apart.  After shooting 7 more groups today we have a total of 75 rounds fired a the same point of aim.  The calculated centers of the two groups are .14 inch apart.  Now we are getting some place.  These distributions are beginning to behave in a credible way. After the first eight groups the 4 group  aggs were good=2.04 and wrinkled=1.94.After todays shooting the 8 group agg for good=2.07 and the 7 group agg for wrinkled=2.27.  The 90% confidence interval for both of these numbers is approximately +/- 15%. Since the two aggs are only 10% different, we do not have absolute proof the good bullets are more accurate. A little more math for you:The wrinkled bullets (35 shot group) had a mean radius of.949 inches with a standard deviation of .623 inches. The good bullets (40 shot group) had a mean radius of .891 inches and a standard deviation of .475". Your mileage may vary but to me these final numbers say that the wrinkled bullets produced more shots well out of the center of the group. Did anything get proven?  I don't know but the results pass the smell test finally. Pictures follow

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 17 February 2016

GOOD BULLETS

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 17 February 2016

WRINKLED BULLETS

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 17 February 2016

Jim,

What were the mean radius and standard deviation for the wrinkled bullets?

John

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 18 February 2016

Mean radius = .949" standard deviation for mean radius = .623 Sorry its kind of buried in the text above. Jim

Attached Files

John Carlson posted this 18 February 2016

For competitive application, when overlaying these groups on an MR-31 target, the “good” bullets score 330, the “wrinkled” bullets score 333 even though the wrinkled group had one in the 7 ring and one in the 6 ring and the good bullets had no bullets outside the 8 ring. There were 18 “good” bullets in the 10 ring, there were 25 “wrinkled” bullets in the 10 ring. Didn't count the X's, just too darn many circles.

:thinking:

John Carlson. CBA Director of Military Competition.

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 18 February 2016

John Thats a good way to look at it!  I scored the two groups using the CBA target.  The good bullets scored 339 points with 40 shots for an average of 8.475 points per shot.  The wrinkled bullets scored 290 points with 35 shots for an average of 8.290 points per shot. If we extrapolate to a 20 shot score match, the good bullets would score 170 and the wrinkled bullets 166. What can I say.  Like Joe, I really like data. Jim

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 18 February 2016

JHS wrote: Mean radius = .949" standard deviation for mean radius = .623 Sorry its kind of buried in the text above. Jim Very polite Jim saying it was buried. It was in plain sight. I just missed it -- twice. Thanks.  John

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 18 February 2016

Jim,

Your results went from a dead heat after 4 pairs of groups to the expected results after 7 pairs. These kinds of shifts happen as more groups are fired (see my lube test in FS #233.) Could you see any difference in quality in the wrinkled bullets between the two stages of your test?

In trying to see if visually inspecting bullets (beyond throwing out the really gross ones) improves accuracy a key question is --  how wrinkled is too wrinkled and how rounded is too rounded, etc.  I don't see how we can do better than pictures to illustrate what was shot and yours are excellent. But can we come up with grades of bullets from insignificant to significant?  Right now I think most shooters are rejecting any wrinkle they can see (certainly that is what they are told to do everywhere) and at least Joe is using a 3X magnifier.  I doubt that he is alone.  The wrinkles that you and I tested can be seen with your glasses off.  There is a big difference between what we are testing and what people are rejecting.

Could we get to a point that we could show a beginner typical pictures and say “if they don't look any worse than these -- shoot em.”  Right now we have pistol shooters rejecting bullets for the slightest flaw -- a waste of good bullets.

Joh 

Attached Files

gpidaho posted this 18 February 2016

I don't worry much if the bullets have a small wrinkle on the nose but if it extends to the driving bands it goes back in the pot (gas cutting) I'm one of those that enjoy casting and loading ammo as much as shooting them and in retirement have the time to devote that others don't. When the new software is up and running I'll make the effort at posting pictures (I'm a computer Tard) Johns idea of showing beginners examples of the different flaws and their probable cause would help those just getting started. Gp

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 18 February 2016

John Some final comments and then I will quit posting so much here. The bullets in the final 15 shots looked better than the first 20.  I shot all of the ones with damaged driving bands in the first 20. If one could remove the two really low hits from the wrinkled bullet group, they shot  better than the “good” bullets.  There was nothing remarkable visually about either one of those bullets.  They were good enough so that I normally would have kept them for practice or warm up.  I remember the really low shot specifically (next to last group - second day) because the trigger break and the follow through were about as good as I can do.  There must have been a serious void in that bullet.  For the CBA shooters, that shot was a 0 on our target. FWIW Jim

Attached Files

frnkeore posted this 18 February 2016

JHS, That was a great test, I enjoyed reading it and the core group of the wrinkled bullets is impressive.

A “0” will certainly hurt you badly in a match, too.

Regarding wrinkled bullets, it's a phase that casters will go through when starting out but, the more you cast, the less you will cast wrinkled bullets and casting those nice looking bullets is kinda additive. It would take me a long time to get enough wrinkled bullets just to do a test.

20/1 is less suited to poor fill than non tin alloys but, it will when the mold is cold but, ~200 gr bullets warm the molds pretty fast even when starting from room temp. A well seasoned mold will produce nice looking bullets, even before it reaches it's best casting temp.

I wish the “good” bullets would have done better! It would be interesting to see if the same thing holds true with the Heavy, UNR and PB class rifles. I'll try to save out some wrinkled bullets to test.

Frank

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 18 February 2016

Frank Sorry I just gotta reply :).  While these were the first cast bullet loads through this rifle, I also wish the good bullets had done better.  I intend to shoot this rifle in matches this summer and this load had done well for me before. Now I need to find a way to cut the groups in half in a very short time. The rifle shot an 8 group agg of .81” with jacketed.  I have a plan but then I guess that should be a different thread. Jim

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 19 February 2016

jhs:::: please don't slow down your reports on your adventures .... we all wish we could be offering more real shooting ideas and results from real test shooting .

besides....even posting your good intentions cam bring astute recommendations from our very knowledgeable members here .... heh some of my most brilliant inspirations were inspired by comments from civilians who had no experience with my projects .... ” hey dumbutt... why don't you just try it this way ... ” .... sometimes the gift horse is disguised as a nosy onlooker ...

a lot of us here have a black belt in nosy onlooking .... you just need to pick out the wheat ...

ken

Attached Files

jeff houck posted this 19 February 2016

All of this testing has been done at 100 yds. I think if the testing was extended to 200 yds. you'd see a different result. By extending to 200 yds. it would give enough time and distance for the poorly balanced wrinkled bullets to open the group size by an exponential rather than a linear amount.

Could you test the same loads at 200 yds. and report the results to us?  Thanks, Jeff Houck

Attached Files

Scearcy posted this 19 February 2016

Jeff

I think your premise is correct but it won't be possible for me to test it for a while. I shot all of my wrinkled bullets. Also the nearest 200 yd range is 60 miles away and under a foot of snow, although the snow is melting today. Most important though is a 200 yard test needs to be done with a reasonably accurate shooter/load/rifle. Right now my CZ and I most assuredly do not qualify.

Do we have any volunteers with a good Heavy rifle?. I'll bet we have readers who could contribute flawed bullets.

Jim

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 20 February 2016

jeff :: we all know that cast bullets obey no known rules ... ( g ) .

however at present i think dispersion is not exponential to either time nor distance .

we tried to beat non-linear dispersion to death a few weeks ago, but it still seems to wriggle a bit .

linear dispersion as a function of time seems to give a satisfying answer ... but then how about targets that seem to show dispersion increasing with time ... ??

are the samples ( shots ) not enough ? can the bullets be “tumbling” .. and taking THAT much extra time to arrive ? are the non-linear/time bullet holes tapered ?

if the bullets are arriving non-linearly/time .... what could accelerate their initial ..muzzle..tangential vector ?

i get tired of keeping an open mind ... i am beginning to think that might indicate an EMPTY mind ..

ken

Attached Files

frnkeore posted this 20 February 2016

As far a “time” dispersed bullets go, they should show themself's in a vertical relationship to the others strikes and can be a product of the load not having every good ES with it's average V.

Bullets going through the transonic area, if not well/over stabilized, can also have a effect in this area.

Frank

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 20 February 2016

i would like to know the velocity ...the tangental vector ... caused by the imperfections at the muzzle exit.

i could calculate this if it were a single point mass but it is more complicated than that ... i think. maybe google knows, or it is probably discussed in that $200 book i should have bought when it was $19 ...

anybody got a handle on the tangental velocity ? here is a guess: if joeb's bullet goes 5 inches wide at 100 yards ... at 1800 fps, 100 yards takes about 0.2 secs ...so the bullet is moving sideways 25 inches per second ... i think . others also 25 in/sec in all other directions .

hmmm.

ken

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 20 February 2016

Ken, There is a formula in the book (which now is more like $400/copy) for calculating the deflection from a point defect and from that the transverse vector could be calculated.  I no longer have Vaughn's book either but I think I can dig up the formula if you want it.

That doesn't solve the problem of distributed air voids which are the sort of messy (i.e. real) situations that can only be solved by approximation and simplification which only a geek can love.

I think if we had access to the kind of facilities Husker described that Lapua has we could start to get answers but I'm not sure they would help us shoot cast bullets better. I think that is the good news because otherwise my head will start to hurt.

John

Attached Files

Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 21 February 2016

johna::: yep this is kinda a bubba/backdoor approach to thinking about why some shots look like non-linear dispersion .......could the sideways vector be increasing downrange ? ... i was wondering if that appearance is from normal muzzle velocity variations ....varying the time of travel .......the muzzle velocity variation normally is 100 fps or less .... so sideways migration greater than that caused by the 100 fps might be from deformed bullets with lower b.c.... so we need to chronograph time of flight of non-liner dispersion to confirm this . eeek.

so joeb thoughtfully showed us a real-life load that did migrate sideways 5 in. at 100 yards ... i think that took 0.2 seconds.. rounded to 2 inches per 0.1 sec. or 20 in. per sec .

that shot was 2000 f.s so if his next shot is effectively only 1900 f.s ... 5 per cent longer time to target ...we think the sideways migration is 5 percent ( 0.1 inch ) more ... so ?? normal load velocity variance gives us group enlargement of about 0.2 moa if we had joeb's bad bullets . those were pretty bad and 100 fps is pretty bad so 0.3 gr. powder charge variance on a 100 yard target will result in very little variance in sideways migration .


should quit while i am ahead .... but probably::

if we shoot higher velocity the 100 fps sec variation from powder charge would be less a percentage .... but higher velocity would kick the bullet sideways faster ... and bullet deformation ...b.c. ... might be worse ...

there is then the thought that if slower bullets have more time to migrate sideways ... wouldn't faster bullets hit more toward center ?? smaller groups ??? heh . time to quit ... again....

oh, to throw a life-preserver here ... perfect bullets leaving the muzzle wouldn't get kicked sideways ... maybe we should think of our gun barrels as ” bullet deformers ” ...

ken the quitter

Attached Files

John Alexander posted this 21 February 2016

It seems to me that wracking our brains about what could increase the transverse vector is going to be frustrating until we have a 100 or better yet a 200 yard tunnel. And maybe even after. I think the non linearity caused by e wind will dwarf the increase in the transverse vector caused by slowing down.  The slowing down vector will get lost in the noise.  I think quitting may be the rational choice.

John

Attached Files

mtngun posted this 11 March 2016

LMG wrote: it was the bullets at the lighter weight end that was causing the inaccuracy. That makes sense.   

Thanks for sharing your data.

Attached Files

mtngun posted this 11 March 2016

joeb33050 wrote: If we don't experiment, we don't find what helps.

If we experiment and don't share results, nobody knows what helps or doesn't.

Perhaps it's this lack of experimenting and sharing results that makes me prickly. There's a lot of blathering on the forum, and damn few pictures of targets or data.Agree 100% Joe, and that's why I appreciate you even if you are prickly sometimes.  :D  :D  :D   You do share lots of data.

Attached Files

Close