Here is the deal in the BIG CITY toilet, Los Angeles area.
An AR that sold for $650 in December, hoge poge frankenstein upper/lower- Now $3000 and there are none at that price to buy.
Any tactical weapon- NONE. And I stress NONE-.
Everybody who bought an 80% lower to sit on has now milled it and sold off their registered lower. A massive flood of factory lowers have hit the market to feed the NON-gun owners desire to fill a hole in their life.
Every 22 rifle has doubled in price, unless brand new. Then there are none.
Magazines or specific types, $100 each, used and cash flows like water in a flood.
22LR is the new barter commodity rather than gold and silver. This is NOT an exaggeration.
If you think $50/carton for 15 year old 22 LR is high, folks here are getting $70/carton from those who have NONE to shoot.
9mm federal Walmart ammo is not 9.99 nor 11.99 but $25/box and none avail except on the street in trade. $40+ for a box of same in 45ACP.
223 brass is not pushing $150-175/k, Nato or not, 1x, 2x, 5x fired doesn;t matter.
If you have 1000 pieces of 55 or 62 gr FMJ-BT pulls from pats Reloading before the shooting, they are no longer valued at .09 per bullet but at .21 per-- with none to be found unless your fast on the trigger.
Powder is trading at $35 per lb daily, Varget, 4895, 332, 335 are all at $50/lb, varget can go higher that that on a given day.
primers are rationed by retailers with 2 flats a day at $4/flat. They will sell a carton if your in the KNOW. If not, thats what you get and SRP and SRPM are trading at $70+/carton on the street.
Backorders are being delivered and the 223/5.56 prices are dropping back to .60/round but have been as high as a $1/per and sold in 1000 qty at that price.
Guns, common types are flowing in the used market fine and at normal prices. Unless your an idiot. Matter of fact, many good deals can be had. Assault styled guns, zero inventory or really outrageous prices. If its potentially going to be banned, its 3x priced. Sporting models don't exist on shelves and only the plastic junk models of anything are finding their way to the shelves and at modestly exaggerated prices.
And so the moral of my story- You should have learned in 2008/2009 that when there is a Presidential change to the left, or bad doddoo happens or could happen, you'd better invest in your sport in advance of your need and stockpile what you can. Yes, speculation.
The LIGHT at the end of the tunnel is this: When backorders are taken to over 1 year periods, retailers stop them completely. This is where we are now. Time and piss poorly executed legislation and our fine Constitution WILL indeed allow the market to resume a new elevated norm with inventories back at normal levels. When that occurs, a GLUT or overabundance at the big boys houses will offer HUGE INCENTIVES to buy massive quantities if desired at WELL BELOW market price. This means your primers you've been buying factory fresh at your local mom and pop will move from $3-4/flat, $30-40 per carton, to below $20/carton with no limits on purchases.
Powder like Green Dot and Herco will sell for $14/lb, 4895 will be sold cheaply to reduce inventories.
Cabelas CAN'T renig on a backorder. Once they place an order from Alliant, it's a done deal. Same with Grafs, Midsouth, Natchez, Midway, CTDirt, etc. There WILL BE a bomb that goes off in the big box components dealers warehouses, material will flow like water as they reduce their incremental loses and resume good cash positions. Bang, CBA members need to buy 15k CCI #400's and bite the bullet.
This is NOT prophetic at all, this is historically accurate, I survived it and thrived in the midst of it. Thrived! History will repeat itself. Duh!
Times have changed and this will happen again and again and again.
On the other hand, powders like Varget that are mfgd outside the US- were screwed. The mfgr tastes US dollars (fatter ones) and they go for broke. Varget will stay elevated, 'cause it's worth every penny you spend on it. There is NO SUBSTITUTE for cubic inches and Varget. These are two undeniable laws of physics not defined by Newton or Einstein. These are God Given laws we live by.
Ric--- you should have purchased BP and caps and lots of Pb straight up. They will mitigate part of the 2nd Amendment, modern firearms. We will get tossed back 150 years and be shooting SS rifles and pistols for sure. BP never goes bad. Crisco and Beeswax will always be here. As long as there is fat to render, wood to char, a haystack to pee in and a volcano or seeping crack of hot water on earth, we will have BP. These things I say above, are truth in whole, not just in part. This is the gospel according to Mike.
I have lived and learned. Im not rich but have means to shoot as I keep a careful eye on the sporting arms market and I trade in it on a daily basis.
The LIGHT will not bee seen until September at the earliest but more than likely 2014, March or so. This is the timeline. Retailers learned a hard lesson last time around and as much as their margins went up and sales too, when the B/O flood was unleashed, they had bills to pay. This time retailers shut down B/O's as early as two weeks in. last time, 2 months. A big difference INDEED. There will be a shorter window with less inventory to make the KILLER DEALS. I run a small company and have kids and wife. If I have time to do this type of careful market watching, then likely you do too.
Take care, rest assured. Time is on your side.